USDCHF: Challenging its rising trendline

EUR/USD

Continues to bounce.

• EUR/USD continues to bounce after the test of the support at 1.3708. However, the declining trendline still favours a bearish bias. An hourly resistance can be found at 1.3847 (25/03/2014 high). Another resistance lies at 1.3876.

• In the medium-term, the break of the support at 1.3834 (11/03/2014 low, see also the rising channel) coupled with general overbought conditions favour a move lower towards the support at 1.3643. The recent high at 1.3967 is likely to act as a strong resistance.

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Pausing.

• GBP/USD is digesting its recent rise. However, the short-term momentum remains positive as long as the hourly support at 1.6598 (28/03/2014 low) holds. Hourly resistances can be found at 1.6684 and 1.6718. Another hourly support stands at 1.6555 (27/03/2014 low).

• In the longer term, prices continue to move in a rising channel. As a result, a bullish bias remains favoured as long as the support at 1.6460 holds. Another key support stands at 1.6220 (17/12/2013 low).

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Moving above the resistance at 103.76.

• USD/JPY is moving above the key resistance 103.76. Another resistance stands at 104.92 (16/01/2014 high). Monitor the hourly support at 103.44 (31/03/2014 high) as the current rise looks short-term overextended. Another hourly support lies at 102.75 (intraday low).

• A long-term bullish bias is favoured as long as the key support area given by the 200 day moving average (around 100.66) and 99.57 (see also the rising trendline from the 93.79 low (13/06/2013)) holds. A major resistance stands at 110.66 (15/08/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Challenging its rising trendline.

• USD/CHF continues to weaken. Prices are now challenging the support given by the rising trendline. Hourly horizontal supports stand at 0.8814 (01/04/2014 low) and 0.8787. An initial resistance can now be found at 0.8852 (intraday high), while more significant resistances lie at 0.8896 and 0.8930.

• From a longer term perspective, the structure present since 0.9972 (24/07/2012) is seen as a large corrective phase. The recent technical improvements suggest weakening selling pressures. A key resistance lies at 0.8930.

Await fresh signal.

USD/CAD

Short-term base underway?

• USD/CAD is trying to stabilise itself. However, the current short-term technical pattern (symmetrical triangle) still favours a bearish bias. A break of the initial resistance at 1.1078 (28/03/2014 high) is needed to improve the short-term technical structure. Another resistance stands at 1.1107 (27/03/2014 high, see also the 38.2% retracement). Supports can be found at 1.1001 (28/03/2014 low) and 1.0956.

• In the longer term, the decisive break of the major resistance at 1.0870 validates a multi-year basing formation whose minimum upside potential is around 1.1910. The key resistance given by the 50% retracement (around 1.1236) of the decline from the September 2009 peak at 1.3065 remains thus far intact. A key support stands at 1.0911 (19/02/2014 low).

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Consolidating.

• AUD/USD has broken the key resistance at 0.9168, validating a 3 month bullish reversal pattern. Monitor the hourly horizontal range between 0.9214 and 0.9295/0.9304 (01/04/2014 high). Another support can be found at 0.9154 (26/03/2014 low).

• In the medium-term, the decisive break of the strong resistance at 0.9168 (02/12/2013 high, see also the 200 day moving average) favours a further rise towards the key resistance at 0.9448.

Long 2 units at 0.9175, Obj: Close unit 1 at 0.9429, remaining at 0.9691, Stop: 0.9204 (Entered: 2014-03-26).

GBP/JPY

Edging higher towards the key resistance at 173.66.

• GBP/JPY continues to move higher and is now approaching the key resistance at 173.66. Hourly supports can be found at 171.58 (intraday low) and 170.99. Another key resistance lies at 174.85.

• The break of the major resistance at 163.09 (07/08/2009 high) calls for further long-term strength towards the resistance at 179.17 (15/08/2002 low). The long-term technical structure remains supportive as long as the key low at 160.41 (19/11/2013 low) holds.

• We have raised (again) our stop-loss on our remaining long position.

Long 1 unit at 169.75, Obj: Close unit 1 at 173.45, Stop: 171.47 (Entered: 2014-03-27).

EUR/JPY

Approaching the resistance at 143.79.

• EUR/JPY continues its steep advance and is now challenging the resistance area between 143.38 and 143.79. Hourly supports can be found at 142.44 (intraday low) and 141.79 (intraday low).

• The long-term technical structure remains positive as long as the support at 134.11 (20/11/2013 low, see also the 200 day moving average) holds. Resistances can be found at 147.04 (16/09/2008 low) and 157.00 (08/09/2008 high).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Bouncing.

• EUR/GBP has improved, breaking the resistance at 0.8298. However, a break of the key resistance at 0.8322 is needed to suggest something more than a temporary bounce. Supports stand at 0.8246 and 0.8191 (28/02/2014 low).

• In the longer term, the failure to make any follow-through after the break of the resistance at 0.8350 (06/02/2014 high) calls for caution as prices remain below a declining 200 day moving average. A key support area stands at between 0.8168 and 0.8158.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Continues to weaken within its rising channel.

• EUR/CHF remains weak after its daily shooting star made on 26 March. Hourly resistances lie at 1.2207 (27/03/2014 high) and 1.2238. Hourly supports are given by 1.2163 and the rising channel (around 1.2147).

• In September 2011, the SNB put a floor at 1.2000 in EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

Long 3 units at 1.2329, Objs: 1.2660/1.2985/1.3195, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2013-01-23).

GOLD (in USD)

The support at 1276 has held thus far.

• Gold remains weak. However, monitor the test of the support at 1276 given the current shortterm overextended decline. Hourly resistances can be found at 1300 and 1317. Another support lies at 1232.

• Longer term, we are sceptical of a long-term bullish reversal pattern. A move back to the previous lows at 1181 (28/06/2013 low) is favoured. A major resistance stands at 1434 (30/08/2013 high).

Await fresh signal.

SILVER (in USD)

Trying to bounce.

• Silver is trying to bounce. A break of the hourly resistance at 20.22 (25/03/2014 high) is needed to suggest something more than a dead cat bounce. Furthermore, the technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the resistance at 20.58 (21/03/2014 high). An hourly support stands at 19.58, while a key support lies at 19.01 (30/01/2014 low).

• In the long-term, the trend is negative. However, the potential higher low at 18.84 (31/12/2013 low) and the break of the resistance at 20.52 suggest a phase of stabilisation. A key resistance now stands at 23.09.

Await fresh signal.