USD/CAD meeting sellers on spikes [Video]

Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA Financial Source

Expect USD/CAD sellers

The CAD has been strongly supported over the last 24 hours after a bullish shift from the Bank of Canada. The CAD rose by its most since June 2020 against the USD. The Bank of Canada is now the first central bank to exit its stimulus program after it announced that asset purchases would be reduced from $4 billion a week down to $3billion a week. On top of this, the BoC brought forward its guidance expecting an interest rate rise in 2022 vs expectation of rate rise in 2023.

The USD is weak at the moment as the US 10 year yields have failed to rise despite a good run of recent US data including a stronger than expected US CPI print, US retail sales, NFP data, PMI manufacturing and services data. Many analysts and investors still see the medium-term outlook for the USD as bearish.

In these conditions expect USDCAD sellers on rallies.

Key trade risks

Any further rise in Canadian COVID-19 cases will put a strain on this bullish outlook.
Any sharp falls in the oil markets on rising COVID-19 cases will weaken CAD.
If the FOMC meets next week and announce bond tapering, that will support the USD.

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Author

Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA

Financial Source

Giles is the chief market analyst for Financial Source. His goal is to help you find simple, high-conviction fundamental trade opportunities. He has regular media presentations being featured in National and International Press.

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