• No change expected from second and final revision of Q1 GDP
  • Annualized expansion to be 3.1% in the first quarter
  • Most statistical inputs for GDP are complete


The Bureau of Economic Analysis, a division of the Commerce Department will issue its third and final version of first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on Thursday, June 27th at 8:30 am EDT, 12:30 pm GMT.


The second revision and third version of first quarter annualized GDP is expected to be unchanged at 3.1%. The initial release was 3.2% and the first revision was 3.1%.

GDP and the US Economy

The unexpected strength of the US economy in the first quarter came after a successful 2018 which saw the first annual 3% quarterly average for GDP in 12 years. 


Nonetheless the declining rate of expansion following the 4.2% second quarter, 3.4% in the third and 2.2% in the fourth led to speculation that the burst of growth in the middle six months was transitory, based on the tax reform and spending bills of the previous year. The concern was that once the stimulus was spent the economy would revert to its 2-2.5% performance of the post-recession years.  The GDP average for the eight years from 2010 through 2017 was just 2.203%.

The 3.2% initial release was 0.9% greater than the last Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate of 2.3%. It was an uncommonly large miss for that model.  The latest estimate for the second quarter is 2.0%. The range has been 0.9% to 2.1%. There are eight more estimates with the final one on July 25th.

Statistical inputs for GDP

At this point all of the major statistical components for first quarter GDP have been released.  Several of the items will receiver further revision in the months ahead but substantial changes to the third GDP release are rare.

Non-farm payrolls are adjusted annually to account for any discrepancies between the so-called birth-death model estimates for new job creation and the actual employment numbers reported to the government for tax purposes.  Trade numbers are also modified over time and can make important changes to GDP as exports add to the accounting for economic activity and imports subtract.  But in general the reporting for the first quarter is complete by the third GDP version.

The tendency with long term growth rates is to extrapolate in reverse, to see a weakening in the prior quarter if growth in the current period is markedly lower.  However, this seemingly intuitive response is not born out statistically. The calculations used by the BEA do produce the abrupt shifts in GDP rate from quarter to quarter seen in the historical record.

Currency and policy implications

Fed policy is forward looking. The central bank is not concerned about  growth in the first quarter though admitting it was stronger than anticipated. Inflation is of greater moment to the FOMC but it is the potential for a much weaker expansion and the impact of  the China trade dispute and other potential conflicts that is driving bank policy.  With the tilt toward easing in July and beyond already established a weaker than expected Q1 GDP will reinforce that policy and a  stronger than predicted growth rate will be ignored by the credit and currency markets as having little to add to the current situation.


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD holds gains above 1.13 on mixed US COVID-19 stats

EUR/USD holds the higher ground above 1.13 as US stocks rise and the safe-haven dollar retreats. Investors are shrugging off EU disagreements amid mixed US coronavirus stats. 


Gold consolidates above $1800, holds onto gains looking at $1825

The yellow metal rose further and reached the highest level since 2011 at $1818/oz after the beginning of the American session. It then moved off highs, finding support at $1808.

Gold News

GBP/USD edges up amid Sunak's fiscal stimulus, shrugging off Brexit

GBP/USD is trading above 1.2550, shrugging off Germany's Merkel comments that Brexit talks made little progress and may end with no deal. UK Chancellor Sunak presented fiscal plans including a retention bonus for firms that re-hire workers. 


Altcoin season rocks on under the radar

The Altcoin segment is boiling hot, laying the foundations for a massive bull market. Despite the apparent calm on the surface, Cardano, Chainlink or Ripple knock hard on the heavens' door. The war for dominance distracts Bitcoin and Ethereum, focused on the power play.

Read more

WTI on the move to fresh session highs, testing $41 the figure

We are now over 1% higher on the day despite the crude oil inventories in the United States swelling by 5.7 million barrels in the week to July 3, information that was provided by the Energy Information Administration. 

Oil News

Forex Majors