Geopolitical Tensions Dominate Markets


Economic Data

- (PT) Portugal May Current Account Balance: -€409.4M v -€164.2M prior
- (US) Jun Chicago Fed National Activity Index: 0.12 v 0.18e

- With little in the way of major earnings or economic data to distract markets, the situation in eastern Ukraine remains the major focus this morning. The western powers pushed their strong thesis that pro-Russia separatists shot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, while Moscow outlined data they said suggests Ukraine had a hand in shooting down the plane. Gold and commodities aren't moving too much on the tensions, but the 10-year UST yield has dropped to 2.450%, down 3 bps today. The DJIA is down 0.67%, the S&P500 is down 0.44% and the Nasdaq is down 0.54%.

- EUR/USD managed to hold above the January low of 1.3477 last week and during the European session the pair traded as high as 1.3550. Some FX analysts believe geopolitical tension could leave the EUR vulnerable, especially as EU foreign ministers prepare to meet on Tuesday to discuss and possibly decide on more sanctions against Russia. Yield differentials are also hinting that EUR could come under fresh pressure, given that the German 10-year yield is probing all-time lows.

- Oil services name Haliburton saw solid growth in its second quarter. Revenue topped expectations and earnings were in line. Halliburton said that its income from operations in the eastern hemisphere, which includes its Middle East/Asia and Europe/Africa/CIS groups, grew by 26% sequentially and the company expects full-year growth in the low double-digits. Shares of HAL are up 1%.

- Shares of utility Gas Natural are up sharply this morning. On Friday, the company disclosed that it had received three approaches from Algonquin Power & Utilities, which holds a 4.9% stake in the company. Gas Natural this morning rejected the final $13/shr offer from Algonquin and highlighted its statement from a week ago that the board is not actively engaged, nor plans to be, in a process to sell the Company.


Looking Ahead

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $48B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 19:25 (AU) RBA's Debelle speaks on panel in Sydney
- 23:00 (AU) RBA's Stevens speaks in Sydney

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