• Consumer confidence expected to continue recovery in June.
  • Retail sales, durable goods, personal spending reversed April collapse.
  • Michigan consumer sentiment rebounded into June from its April low.
  • Improving economic statistics vie with the pandemic for market influence.

They near universal closure of the US economy in April and firing of upwards of 35 million people by the end of the month drove consumer sentiment into its steepest decline in history.  Sharp but short-lived, as confidence and consumption began their recovery the next month.

Conference Board consumer confidence is expected to rise to 91.6 in June from 86.6 in May.  The plunge from 132.6 in February to 85.7 in April was the largest two-month drop in the 53 year series.


The Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 78.1 in June from 72.3 in May and 71.8 in April

Consumption in May

Hard numbers from May in retail sales, durable goods and personal spending confirm the April bottom and subsequent reversal. Retail sales plummeted 14.7% in April, by far the largest one month decline on record and then surged 17.7% in May, more than double its 8% estimate.  

Retail sales


Durable goods, a subset of sales fell 18.1% in April and rebounded 15.8% in May, besting the 10.9% prediction.  Non-defense capital goods the business investment proxy, dropped 6.5% in April, rising 2.5% in May, much more than the 1% projection.  Personal spending rose 8.2% in May following the 12.6% April tumble and was the only consumption gauge to miss its forecast at 9%.  

Labor Market

Non-farm payrolls added 2.5 million jobs in May an enormous 10.5 swing from the 8 million decline expected. The ADP private payrolls loss at 2.76 million was less than a third of the 9 million predicted.

Further improvement is anticipated in June with NFP and ADP forecast to add 3 million jobs each.


The rise in virus cases in many states has prompted a mild degree of risk-aversion in currencies. The dollar is moderately higher in all major pairs over the last two weeks. 

Equities have had alternating bouts of worry and hope leaving the major averages within points of their positions on June 15.  

While no states have ordered widespread business closures, Texas Governor Abbot shuttered bars on Monday a month after permitting them to open saying that they were one of the sources of the increase in new cases and other states have slowed their opening schedules.

With lockdowns at an end across the country the return to employment in June is probably more widespread than anticipated. The risk to the jobs numbers and consumer sentiment is on the upside though better than expected numbers will not be enough to ally all the pandemic fears.






Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Analysis

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD bounces after upbeat COVID-19 cure news

EUR/USD is trading above 1.13, rebounding from the lows. Gilead reported that its drug Remdesevir substantially reduces mortality among COVID-19 patients. The news boosted stocks and weighed on the dollar. US coronavirus statistics are due out.


GBP/USD recaptures 1.26 as the market mood improves

GBP/USD is trading above 1.26 as the market mood improves and the safe-haven dollar retreats. Investors are shrugging off Brexit concerns and focusing on hopes to cure coronavirus. US COVID-19 statistics are due out.


XAU/USD consolidates daily gains above $1,800

After advancing to its highest level since September of 2011 at $1,818 on Wednesday, the XAU/USD pair staged a correction and briefly dropped below $1,800 on Thursday.

Gold News

Cryptocurrencies: War for dominance hit the bedrock of the market

Bitcoin tried to regain market share and activated sales in the Altcoin segment. BTC/USD, ETH/USD and XRP/USD are looking for supports and a rebound to push them to new elative highs. The current compression on the XRP/USD chart could trigger an exploding movement.

Read more

WTI drops to fresh weekly lows below $39 amid virus risks, IEA forecast

WTI (August futures on Nymex) extends the steep declines seen on Thursday to drops over 1.50% in the European session this Friday. The oil bears breach the 39 level to hit the lowest levels in eight days at 38.76.

Oil News

Forex Majors