Ukraine hope, can China help

There are fresh hopes of at least some forward movement toward a possible peace in Ukraine. Very early stages and a long way to go, but at least one super-power is pushing for a negotiated settlement.

It is very likely a plan that would involve Russia keeping the Russian speaking regions of Ukraine. US Secretary of State Blinken argues such a deal is un-acceptable, but in fact such a plan is a practical potential resolution of the conflict. Which would greatly benefit the suffering people of Ukraine. Giving them complete respite from conflict and allowing re-building to begin.

Clinging to overly simplistic positions, with no regard to historical, regional and indeed recent political history of the nation, unfortunately makes peace impossible. Makes war the order of the day. When in human history has war ever ended without the redrawing of boundaries? What maters in attaining peace is the practical reality on the ground in Ukraine, for the people of Ukraine. Both pre-war and now. There are both pro-Ukraine and smaller pro-Russian regions. There always have been. This is not something new.

That President Putin is willing to discuss with other Russian leaders the proposals put forward by President Xi, is a positive first small step. It is still a long way from Ukraine agreement, but allows at last some glimmer of practical hope.

A resolution of the Ukraine conflict would greatly benefit the economies of Europe and global trade. It would stabilise food supplies, at least from Ukraine, and lift consumer and business sentiment tremendously globally. Particularly in Europe.

Sanctions would no doubt remain on Russia and continue to inflict a heavy price, but elsewhere stability and normalisation would be possible. The re-building effort in Ukraine could begin apace and the end of the human tragedy there would be impossible to comprehend.

Far from a perfect resolution, it would nonetheless represent the potential for a lasting peace for the people who live across all Ukraine.

The ending of the potential for a World War should not be under-estimated either.

Would this be an appeasement of an aggressor or a practical solution to a conflict? This is a political question. When on the ground people all across Ukraine, and on both sides militarily, are suffering terribly.

The reality is Russia is solidifying captured territory, was always going to retain Ukraine and is in fact pushing forward as we speak. We may not like it, bus this is the reality unfortunately that any peace proposal must confront and deal with.

The sooner a settlement can be brokered, the better it may well be for Ukraine now and in the long term.