Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
XAU/USD 1H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: Gold failed to carry bullish momentum beyond 1,300 dollars because of the 2015 high after the price had broken out of the triangle. As a result, the precious metal is now trading within the distinct boundaries of a bearish channel. The pattern implies a sell-off from 1,280 down to 1,260, but we should be wary of strong nearby supports, such as the weekly pivot point at 1,274 and a cluster circa 1,270, created by the yesterday’s low, daily S1 and most importantly by the 200-hour SMA. Meanwhile, the bullion is close to being oversold, since 67% of open positions are short. If resistance at 1,280 is violated, the next bullish target should be the daily R1 and May 5 high at 1,287.
EUR/AUD 1H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: The latest recovery from 1.4440 is the result of EUR/AUD probing and confirming the 45-month up-trend. Accordingly, our outlook on the pair is bullish, and we expect the Euro to keep appreciating against the Australian Dollar. The current distribution between the longs and shorts also favours a rally, being that as many as three fourths of all traders are short the single currency, and there is little room for new sellers to enter the market. However, the upside is limited by a falling resistance line that connects 2008 and 2015 highs, meaning we are highly unlikely to see the exchange rate above 1.58 any time in the foreseeable future. In the meantime, the technical indicators are mixed and support neither scenario.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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