Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
AUD/USD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: The Aussie is in a good position to advance against its US counterpart, as AUD/USD has formed a well-defined channel. In addition, the pair is trading above the long-term SMA and above the three-month up-trend. Moreover, most of the four-hour and weekly technical studies are bullish. However, we are likely to see a bearish correction within the pattern before the price starts a new upward wave. In the nearest future AUD/USD is expected to bounce off of the upper boundary of the pattern at 0.7760, while the downside is limited by a cluster of supports between 0.7525 and 0.7500. The counter-argument would be the long-short ratio, as 70% of traders are bulls, meaning the Aussie is strongly overbought.
AUD/CAD 1H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: Our short-term outlook on AUD/CAD is bearish. The currency pair is currently trading near the upper edge of the downward-sloping channel, which implies a decline from 0.9840, while the lower boundary and at the same time the target is 0.9750/40.
As for the longer-term outlook, the bears are highly unlikely to be able to push the rate through demand at 0.97, being that the level implied by the seven-month up-trend, even though the technical indicators in all three presented time-frames are mostly pointing south. Meanwhile, the SWFX traders seem undecided with respect to the Aussie, since 52% of them are holding long and 48% are holding short positions.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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