Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
AUD/CHF 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: The risks for AUD/CHF are heavily skewed to the downside at the moment. For one, the currency pair has recently formed a descending triangle, a pattern that indicates growing supply. In addition, the exchange rate is fluctuating right at the intersection of two major trend-lines: one joins the peaks of the last 13 months and the other is more than three and a half years old. Accordingly, we would expect the Aussie to decline. The immediate support is at 0.7350, represented by the monthly R1, followed by the lower bound of the pattern circa 0.73 francs. At the same time, the Australian Dollar is moderately overbought in the SWFX market—56% of open positions are long, which only adds to the bearish bias towards the pair.
XAU/USD 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: There is a potential bearish channel emerging in the four-hour gold chart, meaning the latest rally from 1,208 is about to come to an end. The ceiling is assumed to be at 1,253, where we expect the price to top out and begin a new downward wave towards the lower edge of the pattern. However, we should be wary that the technical indicators, especially in the four-hour and weekly time frames, are mostly pointing north, and the precious metal appears to be near the oversold area, being that 60.50% of currently open positions in the SWFX marketplace are short. Accordingly, XAU/USD may well manage to close above the red trend-line, and then the near-term focus will shift towards the March 17 high.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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