Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
AUD/CHF 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: Since the last time we looked at AUD/CHF, the pair has confirmed the lower boundary of the channel and has approached the upper trend-line. Accordingly, we now expect the Aussie to turn around and start a new bearish leg. Although there are not many arguments in favour of a sell-off apart from the pattern itself and the fact that the currency is overbought (71% of positions are long), the risks are skewed to the downside. The rate should soon bounce off of 0.7150 and then descend past this month’s low at 0.68. Meanwhile, above 0.7150 the target will be a wide but formidable supply area between 0.7350 and 0.7300, created by the monthly PP and Dec 31 high.
AUD/NZD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: After AUD/NZD bottomed out at 1.0550, one can seen the glimpses of a bullish channel emerging in the four-hour chart. However, the currency pair has been struggling to rise above 1.0840 recently. The focus is therefore on the nearest demand zone at 1.0767/59 (weekly and monthly PPs). Still, the decline may extend lower without jeopardising the bullish outlook—the key support is at 1.0680, represented by the rising trend-line, weekly S1 and the long-term moving average. In the longer-term perspective, if the price manages to surpass the January 19 high, we may expect a retest of the December and November highs that lie north of 1.1050.
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