Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
AUD/JPY 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: AUD/JPY is approaching the lower boundary of the recently formed channel, meaning the outlook on the pair is bullish both in the short and long terms. The price is expected to bottom out near 88.25/00 and start a recovery. The first resistance in this case will be the monthly R1 at 88.74, followed by a more important level at 89.13. The counter-arguments are the facts that the market is overbought (72% of positions are long) and the weekly indicators are bearish. If support at 88.00 is insufficient to stop the sell-off, the focus will shift to 87.50/25, where the weekly S1 merges with the 200-period SMA. Additional support will be only at 86.50, represented by the Nov 10 low.
USD/ZAR 1H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: USD/ZAR is currently trading within a narrow short-term channel, and there is still room for the US Dollar to advance. The pair is expected to reach the last week’s high before exiting the pattern. Future direction is still uncertain, but the bias is to the upside, considering that we have just completed a correction to 13.89 after the 19 Oct—Nov 16 rally. Whereas a close above 14.44 will imply a test of the monthly R2 at 14.65, a dip beneath the lower trend-line will substantially increase the risk of the exchange rate falling to the 200-hour SMA at 14.14. Meanwhile, the distribution between the bulls and bears is in favour of a surge: 30% of positions are long and 70% are short.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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