Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
EUR/AUD 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: The general outlook on EUR/AUD is bearish, as the currency pair has recently formed a descending channel. The target is the lowest since Jun 28 level, namely 1.4320. In the short run, however, the Euro retains potential to appreciate while undergoing an upward correction. During the next several days the price could rise 100-150 pips, but the gains are to be limited by the falling resistance line at 1.4850. If this is not the case and the rate keeps advancing, the next probable ceiling is at 1.50, represented by the weekly R1 and monthly S1, followed by the weekly R2, Nov 9 high and 200-period SMA near 1.53. Meanwhile, the market is overbought—69% of positions are long.
XAU/USD 4H Chart: Triangle
Comment: The precious metal is set to lose even move value in the nearest future. Considering that gold is right at the apex of the triangle that appeared after a strong sell-off, we expect the price to break the up-trend line at 1,072 and resume the decline. The first target will be a combination of the weekly S1 and monthly S2 at 1,062/59, while there is an even stronger support level at 1,046, implied by the weekly S2 and 2010 low. On the other hand, a close above 1,077 will invalidate the negative outlook, but it will be difficult for the bullion to develop a rally, considering high concentration of resistances between 1,080 and 1,100 and considering that 73% of positions are already long.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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