Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
NZD/USD 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: There are currently many signals suggesting the New Zealand Dollar is going to keep underperforming its US counterpart. The main reason to be bearish the Kiwi is because NZD/USD has just broken through the 200-period SMA to the downside and confirmed resistance at 0.7550. Auxiliary signals are provided by the fact that there is a falling channel emerging on the four-hour chart and most of the indicators are pointing south. The near-term rallies should be capped by the resistance line at 0.7450, while the currency pair erodes support at 0.7330, as the target is the lower boundary of the pattern at 0.72, where it merges with the March low and monthly S2 level.
USD/PLN 4H Chart: Falling Wedge
Comment: USD/PLN is a strong buy, considering that the currency pair has recently closed above the multi-month down-trend line, which appears to be the upper edge of the falling wedge. However, it might be a good idea to wait for a pull-back to the trend-line before going long the US Dollar. The price is likely to dip down to 3.60 after a test of the resistance cluster at 3.6750, created by the May 11 high, monthly PP, and 200-period SMA. Accordingly, this obstacle will be hard for the bulls to surmount, but a success here is likely to lead to a recovery to 3.82 (Apr high). The next target is going to be the Mar high at 3.97. However, the SWFX sentiment is strongly bearish, as 68% of open positions are short.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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