Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
USD/CHF 4H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: There are two conflicting signals emerging at the moment. On one hand, there is a bearish channel developing since March, and it implies a sell-off from 0.95, where the upper boundary of the pattern coincides with the monthly PP and 200-period SMA. On the other, the pair has made two distinct bottoms near 0.91, and this implies a breach of the May 12 high with a follow-up rally beyond 0.95. The technical indicators do not bring clarity into the situation, but given the seniority of the parallel bearish trend-lines, the chance of supply at 0.95 withstanding the buying pressure is higher than the probability of a break-out to the upside.
CHF/JPY 4H Chart: Double Top
Comment: Although because of almost perfectly horizontal price chart of USD/JPY correlation between CHF/JPY and USD/CHF should be close to negative 1, the first Franc-cross seems to have a higher chance of forming a reversal pattern than USD/CHF. Here the potential decline beneath the neck-line (May 11 low at 128.24) will have around 200 pips of free space before it encounters a significant demand area. The sell-off will probably end around 126.25, where the monthly PP merges with the 200-period SMA, without making it all the way to the start of the Apr 29-May 7 rally, namely to 124 yen. Meanwhile, the sentiment is moderately bearish, with three fifths of the traders holding short positions.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD eases to near 1.0700 ahead of German inflation data
EUR/USD is paring gains to near 1.0700 in the European session on Monday. The pair stays supported by a softer US Dollar, courtesy of the USD/JPY sell-off and a risk-friendly market environment. Germany's inflation data is next in focus.
USD/JPY recovers after testing 154.50 on likely Japanese intervention
USD/JPY is recovering ground after sliding to 154.50 on what seemed like a Japanese FX intervention. The Yen tumbled in early trades amid news that Japan's PM lost 3 key seats in the by-election. Focus shifts to the US employment data and the Fed decision later this week.
Gold price holds steady above $2,335, bulls seem reluctant amid reduced Fed rate cut bets
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers near the $2,320 area and turns positive for the third successive day on Monday, albeit the intraday uptick lacks bullish conviction.
Ripple CTO shares take on ETHgate controversy, XRP holders await SEC opposition brief filing
Ripple loses all gains from the past seven days, trading at $0.50 early on Monday. XRP holders have their eyes peeled for the Securities and Exchange Commission filing of opposition brief to Ripple’s motion to strike expert testimony.
Week ahead: FOMC and jobs data in sight
May kicks off with the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and will be one to watch, scheduled to make the airwaves on Wednesday. It’s pretty much a sealed deal for a no-change decision at this week’s meeting.