Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
EUR/USD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: The outlook on EUR/USD is bullish, being that the currency pair has recently found solid support at 1.05 and has formed an upward-sloping channel. However, at the moment the Euro is facing significant downside risks. In order to confirm its intentions to move farther north, the price must eventually close above 1.15. The initial test of this resistance is likely to result in a sell-off, which should be stopped by the lower trend-line of the channel. Then the bulls will have a good opportunity to regain control of the pair. Meanwhile, the technical indicators are either mixed or bearish, and most (60%) the SWFX traders choose to be short the single currency.
EUR/NZD 4H Chart: Rising Wedge
Comment: The latest rally of EUR/NZD appears to be overstretched and unsustainable. First, the currency pair has been trading between two rising but at the same time converging trend-lines. Second, there is no agreement among the technical indicators. There is still a possibility of a rally up to 1.54, but a combination of the up-trend and weekly and monthly R2 levels should be able to stop appreciation of the Euro and initiate a decline. In this case the potential targets will be the May 5 low at 1.47, 200-period SMA at 1.44, Apr 28 low at 1.42, and finally the Apr low at 1.39. Alternatively, if the bulls overcome supply at 1.54, EUR/NZD should aim for 1.58, namely for the Feb high.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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