Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
EUR/AUD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: Though EUR/AUD has been recently forming a bullish channel after bottoming out around 1.3730, in the short term the outlook for the currency pair is bearish. The price has just come into contact with the upper boundary of the pattern at 1.42, and therefore it should decline down to 1.40, breaching supports at 1.4176 (weekly R1 and 200-period SMA) and at 1.41 (monthly PP). However, if the resistance trend-line fails to stop appreciation of the Euro, 1.44 is likely to become the next destination of the pair. Meanwhile, the SWFX market participants seem unable to reach a consensus regarding the exchange rate’s prospects, as 47% of positions are long and 53% are short.
AUD/SGD 1H Chart: Channel Down
Comment: Because of strong supply at 1.08, for the past five days the Aussie has been underperforming relative to its Singapore counterpart. To keep the bearish trend intact, however, AUD/SGD needs to overcome a challenge represented by the Feb low at 1.0327. In case of success the next support will be at 1.03 (weekly S3), but the sell-off may well extend down to 1.0161, namely to the lower trend-line of the channel before there is a correction. In an unlikely case of a rally above resistance at 1.0370, the bears may attempt to regain control of the market at 1.0442 (weekly S2), but 1.05 is seen as a stronger level. As for the sentiment, it is distinctly bullish: 72% of open positions are long.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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