GBP/USD failed to sustain growth on Tuesday as UK public deficit came above the forecast. The upside remains limited by the $1.6180/6200 resistance area ahead of the BOE monetary minutes release on Wednesday at 08:30 GMT. We expect the dove-hawk voting to remain unchanged at 7-2. If true, the cable will likely resume the decline with an initial target of $1.6040.
USD/JPY pushed lower in Asia, but met buying interest at 106 yen. To confirm a local low at the 105 mark the markets need to break above 107.30, but the 107 figure remains a strong barrier these days. USD/JPY is a risky trade right now, so we are waiting for clearer signals. Don’t miss the Japanese trade balance on Tuesday.
There will be a lot of news from Canada tomorrow – retail sales at 12:30 GMT and the Bank of Canada’s meeting & press conference & governor’s speech at 14:00, 15:15 and 19:30 GMT 5respectively. USD/CAD is at the lower edge of the rising channel. A break below 1.1200 can cause a fall to 1.1100. Divergence at the daily chart points at the possibility of a break lower if the BOC sounds less dovish.
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