Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
Daily support at 1.3760 which is the H4 SMA200 has done its job and bounced the price back to Daily resistance at 1.3850 on Monday, and since reaching the resistance the EUR made some pullback to 1.3820-30 support area. This movement has done nothing special except some artificial volatility. Economic data from Germany was below expectations and this pushed the EUR to the downside. However it is good to remember that the EUR is well supported on Daily because of the negative cloud below and the process will probably continue till the end of this month. I think we are just continuing to form the Head and Shoulders figure and the price will continue to move within yesterday's 100 pips range through this week. To restore the upside we need a Daily close above 1.3890-1.3900. To the downside even if we break through 1.3750, the next support is even stronger at 1.3710-20, so i do not think we are going to the downside so quick too.GOLD has lost the 1320 support and as expected dropped to 1308-1305 support area. I think that if we have a test of 1300 and it is broken too the metal may drop to 1287, but no more. Then a recovery and a Daily close above 1300 will follow. Keep in mind that a Daily close below 1300 (failed recovery) will mean continuation of the downside to 1275 or even below.NZD didn't change much since the beginning of this week and is still trading above the support area 0.8520-30. Breaking below will will look for support at 0.8470 and 0.8440. Upside will be restored on a Daily close above 0.8570AUD has reached the 0.9150 and today it has made the first test of SMA200 resistance line. However we need a lot of power to close above it and currently the price is bounced back to 0.9120. The pair will try to stay above 0.9100 level for today. If we have a second fail at 0.9150-60 in this week, that will result in a more significant drop to 0.9000 and even below.JPY still doesn't give up and is keeping the dollar below the resistance 102.30-40. Breaking above will target 103.10 first and then 103.60. Downside support is at 101.10-15GBP also didn't changed at all, still locked in a 50 pips or less range. A good resistance area is already formed at 1.6570, so you can sell around there with SL at 1.6600. If SL is hit re-enter again below 1.6570. Target is 1.6340, and upside will be restored only on a Daily close above 1.6630.For today:SHORT EUR below 1.3850 SL 1.3860 TP 1.3805-1.3780-1.3760-1.3730-1.3710LONG EUR above 1.3710 SL 1.3700 TP 1.3750-1.3775-1.3805-1.3830LONG GOLD above 1308 SL 1304 TP 1318-1326-1332SHORT GOLD below 1310 SL 1314 TP 1302-1292-1287
Good luck!
Good luck!
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