• Currencies and Metals get sold on Friday...

  • Ted Simmons Goes to the Hall of Fame! YAHOO!!!!

Good Day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I was one happy camper last night, when the news came across the screen that my all-time favorite Cardinals baseball player, Ted Simmons, had been elected to the National Hall of Fame! I had long hoped that the committee would see the error of their ways by correcting the baseball writers, who are so heavily focused on the East and West Coasts, and didn't elect him in his first go ‘round. Ted's stats speak for themselves, but I can tell you this... I watch a lot of baseball, and I've never seen a hitter that consistently hit line drives with authority like Ted Simmons did! Plus... Ted worked in the offseason in the winter of 1982, with me at Mark Twain Bank! I can't begin to tell you what a thrill that was for me at the time! A few years ago, at a spring training game, we saw Ted scouting the teams, and after the game me and my friend Rick walked up to him, and we talked for a bit, with me expressing my frustration that he wasn't in the HOF... Then, I asked to get a picture with him, and he said, "no, I don't do pictures", and then I said, but don't you remember working with me in 1982 at Mark Twain Bank, and he replied, "Chuck!, yes, take the picture!"... I don't know where that picture is, but I believe I stored it away in a safe place! Led Zeppelin is getting me all fired up this morning with their song: Kashmir...

Well, Friday was an awful day for the currencies and Gold... It all started when the BLS reported that 266,000 jobs were created in November... You may recall, me telling you last Thursday that the ADP report showed only 67,000 jobs created in November... I'm going to go on a rant on this in a minute, but first... The euro, which was within spittin' distance of 1.11 on Thursday, dropped over a 1/2-cent on Friday, and Gold lost $15... So, you can see where I'm coming from when I rant and stomp my feet over the Jobs report...

In the overnight markets, the currencies and Gold are seeing some healing, as the selling was quite overdone on Friday. The euro is stronger than the 1.1025 it traded at on Friday, and Gold is up $3 in the early trading today, so maybe... just maybe, because you never know... The euphoria by the dollar bugs over the trumped up BLS jobs report will fade into the background... Maybe...

OK... riddle me this Batman.... How does the ADP Employment report only show 67,000 jobs created in November, and the BLS report show 266,000 jobs created? Which of these two does the payroll systems for just about every corporation in this country? ADP... Which of these two should know by the last number the total jobs created in a month? ADP... And which one of those two do the markets pay all kinds of attention to, when they shouldn't pay one Iota of thought to them?... The BLS... So, you tell me which one should we be paying attention to? ADP... Right! But, there's an old adage in the markets, and that is you don't fight the markets... Their pockets are way too deep for you... Keynes once said, "the markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent" But I still have fun throwing darts at the BLS... And will continue to do so, as long as they continue to allow the surveys to be hedonically adjusted each month!

Well, Gold got the snot knocked out of it on Friday, losing the $15 it had earned the previous Friday... The Jobs report got most of the credit for moving the dollar higher, but then the price manipulators made things worse for Gold, when they decided to jump on the idea that jobs were strong...

Speaking of Gold... I know I've been pretty hard on the Beaver... AKA Lola... or AKA Goldman Sachs these past few years... But Lola recently said something that made me like her.... Well, I like what she said, but I'm sure there was an ulterior motive for making the statement, that is here, and I'll discuss what I feel is their ulterior motive after we see what it is She had to say... Oh, and I got this from the good folks at GATA...

"Gold cannot fully replace government bonds in a portfolio, but the case to reallocate a portion of normal bond exposure to gold is as strong as ever," Goldman analysts including Sabine Schels said in a note today. "We still see upside in gold as late cycle concerns and heightened political uncertainty will likely support investment demand" for bullion as a defensive asset."

OK... for Chuck's view on what could be their ulterior motive for making this call.... Could it be that they have a very large position in Gold, and need their clients to purchase Gold to drive the price higher, and when it gets to the price that makes them a big fat profit, they pull the rug out? Hey! It's certainly possible... I learned that years ago, many years ago, in fact, that you always have to look at a Gift horse in the mouth, when it comes to companies having a revelation about needing to own something... I'm just saying...

OK, we left off last week, asking Fed Head, Randal Quarles, a question... If Banks, as you have stated are stable, then why do they need hundreds of Billions of dollars in repo loans? Quarles had to go before the Senate on Thursday last week, and there the Senators really grilled him on what the Fed was doing, so on and so on... Quarles stuck to his guns... I'll give him that! But his guns weren't exactly shooting straight... To put it bluntly, there's a bank or banks out there that the other Banks don't feel comfortable lending money to, which is the whole purpose of the Repo Market... But Quarles wouldn't admit to that.... But if little old me, down here in St. Lous, Mo. A thousand miles away from NYC, can see this for what it is... Everyone can see it, including a Fed Head! I've about had it with the Fed, folks...

BTW did your mother ever utter those words to you and what you were doing at time? I can hear my mom saying, "I've had just about enough of your attitude!" And then being a momma's boy, I would hug her, and tell her I was sorry, in hopes that some good warm cornbread with honey was on the way! HAHAHAHA!

OK... Longtime reader Bob sent me a chart yesterday that showed the CEO outlook... And this brings up another question about the jobs report... Because the CEO outlook showed a drop like a rock off a the side of a cliff! The Index hasn't been this negative since 2008... And yet the BLS expects us to not put two and two together here... CEO's are very negative about the outlook, but they're hiring like there's no tomorrow? Come on BLS, give me some credit here, I'm not as dumb as I look!

The U.S. Data Cupboard is empty today, and will need to be restocked for the rest of the week. The Fed's FOMC meets this week on Wednesday... I fell in my bones that Fed Chairman, Powell, is going to stick to his guns that he displayed last month after cutting rates for the 3rd time, and that those guns were saying that the Fed is going to pause on the rate cuts for now... And he can point to the trumped up BLS jobs report as his reason for doing so!

The Data this week is 2nd and 3rd Tier stuff until we get to Friday, when the November Retail Sales will print... This data will include the Black Friday Christmas sales, so expect a robust Retail Sales figure this week... But remember, all those purchases that were done with credit cards, this is something that's going to come back to haunt U.S. Consumers, folks... I'm just saying...

This week in data overseas, we'll see a boat load of data in the U.K... which should put the kyboshes on the recent sterling rally.... And we'll see the German think tank ZEW's print on Economic Sentiment for this month. Then later in the week the Eurozone will print Industrial Production for November, and the European Central Bank (ECB) wll meet... This will be Christine Legarde's firs meeting leading the ECB, so I will be listening intently to what she has to say...

Before we head to the Big Finish today... I have this for all those that love baseball stats... If you're not one that does love baseball stats, then go ahead on skip ahead... OK? Ready? From 1971-80 Ted Simmons averaged .301 with a .367 on-base percentage. He finished in the top 10 a combined 15 times in either batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Compared to other HOF catchers.. Carlton Fisk had 9 finishes in the top 10, Johnny Bench had 6, and Gary Carter had 4... The thing that always for me riled up about this oversight of Simmons, was that Gary Carter, because he played in New York, was in the HOF, and Simmons had better stats than Carter! But he finally made it... I know Ted is very happy with this election to the HOF.... I know I AM!

To recap... The BLS report shouted from the rooftops that the ADP report is worthless on Friday... I disagree, but it's difficult to fight city hall (the BLS) here... And that blowout of jobs created, with the world "created" the key here, the dollar bugs went on the warpath, and began buying dollars and selling currencies and Gold... The overnight markets have seen some healing in the two asset classes, so maybe, just maybe, because you never know, that the eurphoria from the jobs report will fade quickly...

Or, here's your snippet: "The collapse in heavy duty trucking is getting tougher to blame on difficult YoY comps and is more and more looking like the symptom of a real manufacturing recession in the U.S.

Class 8 orders against collapsed in November, culminating a dismal year that some thought had seen a reprieve with October's improved bookings. But new data from FreightWaves shows that the collapse has continued its trend, indicating that the sluggish economy is to blame for lackluster replacement demand.

Orders totaled 17,300 units for the month, which marks the slowest November since 2015 and a 39% collapse from November 2018. The slowdown in orders is prompting layoffs of hundreds of production workers by companies like Daimler Trucks North America, Volvo Trucks North America, Paccar Inc. and Navistar International Corp.

Other names in the Class 8 supply chain are also dealing with the negative effects. For instance, engine manufacturer Cummins Inc. is "laying off 2,000 white-collar employees globally in the first quarter of 2020".

Meanwhile, November used to be a month when fleets would be busy placing orders for the upcoming year. After October's slight tick up in orders, many analysts thought November could follow suit. That didn't happen, and sequentially November's order book was down 21% from October.

Don Ake, FTR vice president of commercial vehicles commented: "The stalling of freight growth is causing fleets to exercise caution in placing orders for 2020. There will still be plenty of freight to haul, so we expect fleets will continue to be profitable and to replace older equipment. However, there won't be a need for much additional equipment on the roads."

"The industry thrives on stability, but we are now on a rocky road," Ake concluded"

Chuck Again... You bet your sweet bippie that you are now on a rocky road! And, the road is going to get even rockier! So, you better strap yourselves in.... And just this morning, there's a report that Trucking Giant, Celadon, is going to file for bankruptcy this week... It's poised to be the largest truckload bankruptcy in history - and its drivers are already getting slammed.

Currencies today 12/9/19 American Style: A$.6823, kiwi .65555, C$ .7540, euro 1.1072, sterling 1.3165, Swiss $1.0098, European style: rand 14.6223, krone 9.1442, SEK 9.5235, forint 299.35, zloty 3.8684, koruna 23.0598, RUB 63.64, yen 108.50, sing 1.3596, HKD 7.8278, INR 70.98, China 7.0343, peso 19.25, BRL 4.1394, Dollar Index 97.60, Oil $58.53, 10-year 1.82%, Silver $16.62, Platinum $891.53, Palladium $1.885.30, and Gold... $1,463.52

That's it for today... Well, Saturday was the observance of our first day of infamy, Pearl Harbor Day... I visited the Pearl Harbor Museum a few years ago, what a moving place... Our neighborhood progressive dinner party Saturday night was a blast, as usual... A good time was had by all! Well, come tomorrow I'll be all alone again, as my wife is heading South today. (don't tell her I talked about her!) No wait! Alex is here some of the time! So, not completely alone, until this weekend... Chris Stapleton takes us to the finish line today with a real bluesy song: Tennessee Whiskey... I hope you have a Marvelous Monday, and please Be Good To Yourself!

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