Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EURUSD
The Euro holds positive near-term tone, following last Friday’s very disappointing US NFP data that boosted the single currency to spike above 1.13 barrier vs the dollar. However, rallies were short-lived, as corrective easing retraced over 61.8% of 1.1149/1.1317 rally. The Euro is expected to maintain support from further delay in Fed’s rate action that became more likely after Friday’s jobs data, but limited upside is seen for now,. Scenario of prolonged range-trading, looks favored for now, as daily technicals are in neutral mode, with bear-trendline, drawn off 1.1712 peak, capping for now, currently at 1.1314 and 200SMA offering good support at 1.1157. Break through these borders is needed to signal fresh direction.
Daily cloud base offers initial resistance at 1.1260, while cloud’s top reinforces the upper breakpoint, Friday’s peak / trendline resistance.
Res: 1.1247; 1.1260; 1.1280; 1.1317
Sup: 1.1220; 1.1180; 1.1157; 1.1138
GBPUSD
Cable is gaining traction in the near-term, following extension of consolidation phase above fresh lows at 1.5105, triggered by Friday’s dollar-negative US data. Fresh attempts at Friday’s post-data peak at 1.5235, also Fibonacci 23.6% of 1.5656/1.5105 downleg, would trigger further retracement on sustained break higher and expose next strong barriers at 1.5315, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement and 1.5320, daily 20 and 200SMA’s, which are running parallel. Limited upside action is expected, as overall structure remains bearish and corrective attempts should be ideally capped under 200SMA, to keep immediate focus at 1.5085 and 1.5000 targets, Fibonacci 61.8% of 4563/1.5928 rally / psychological support.
Res: 1.5235; 1.5287; 1.5320; 1.5380
Sup: 1.5204; 1.5185; 1.5165; 1.5136
USDJPY
The pair remains directionless and continues to trade within the triangle, with series of daily Doji candles, confirming indecision. Last Friday’s post NFP bumpy trading, ended at pre-data levels, shaping the day’s range in long-legged Doji candle. Neutral near-term technicals support further sideways action, after Friday’s data did not provide the trigger for establishing fresh direction. Triangle’s lower boundary at 119.45, offers initial support, ahead of former lows at 119.20 and post-data spike low at 118.67, break of which is required to spark fresh weakness, as overall structure remains bearishly aligned. On the upside, daily 20SMA offers initial resistance at 120.16, ahead of triangle’s resistance line at 120.27, followed by thin daily cloud’s 120.52/70 span and 200SMA at 120.86, barriers that mark an upside breakpoints.
Res: 120.16; 120.27; 120.52; 120.70
Sup: 119.85; 119.45; 119.20; 118.67
AUDUSD
Near-term studies are bullishly aligned, with the pair holding in extended corrective action off 0.6935 higher base. Bullish close of last Friday and weekly close, gives signals of further recovery. Fresh upside attempts today, probe above daily 20SMA, which also marks Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7278/0.6935 downleg, at 0.7065, with sustained break higher, to give additional bullish signal. However, limited upside action could be expected for now, as overall structure remains firmly bearish. Top of 4-hour Ichimoku cloud offers next barrier at 0.7107, ahead of 0.7147; Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7278/0.6935 downleg.
Upside breakpoints lay at 0.7223/78, daily Ichimoku cloud base / former correction top of 18 Sep.
Res: 0.7083; 0.7107; 0.7147; 0.7223
Sup: 0.7041; 0.7000; 0.6977; 0.6935
The Euro holds positive near-term tone, following last Friday’s very disappointing US NFP data that boosted the single currency to spike above 1.13 barrier vs the dollar. However, rallies were short-lived, as corrective easing retraced over 61.8% of 1.1149/1.1317 rally. The Euro is expected to maintain support from further delay in Fed’s rate action that became more likely after Friday’s jobs data, but limited upside is seen for now,. Scenario of prolonged range-trading, looks favored for now, as daily technicals are in neutral mode, with bear-trendline, drawn off 1.1712 peak, capping for now, currently at 1.1314 and 200SMA offering good support at 1.1157. Break through these borders is needed to signal fresh direction.
Daily cloud base offers initial resistance at 1.1260, while cloud’s top reinforces the upper breakpoint, Friday’s peak / trendline resistance.
Res: 1.1247; 1.1260; 1.1280; 1.1317
Sup: 1.1220; 1.1180; 1.1157; 1.1138
GBPUSD
Cable is gaining traction in the near-term, following extension of consolidation phase above fresh lows at 1.5105, triggered by Friday’s dollar-negative US data. Fresh attempts at Friday’s post-data peak at 1.5235, also Fibonacci 23.6% of 1.5656/1.5105 downleg, would trigger further retracement on sustained break higher and expose next strong barriers at 1.5315, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement and 1.5320, daily 20 and 200SMA’s, which are running parallel. Limited upside action is expected, as overall structure remains bearish and corrective attempts should be ideally capped under 200SMA, to keep immediate focus at 1.5085 and 1.5000 targets, Fibonacci 61.8% of 4563/1.5928 rally / psychological support.
Res: 1.5235; 1.5287; 1.5320; 1.5380
Sup: 1.5204; 1.5185; 1.5165; 1.5136
USDJPY
The pair remains directionless and continues to trade within the triangle, with series of daily Doji candles, confirming indecision. Last Friday’s post NFP bumpy trading, ended at pre-data levels, shaping the day’s range in long-legged Doji candle. Neutral near-term technicals support further sideways action, after Friday’s data did not provide the trigger for establishing fresh direction. Triangle’s lower boundary at 119.45, offers initial support, ahead of former lows at 119.20 and post-data spike low at 118.67, break of which is required to spark fresh weakness, as overall structure remains bearishly aligned. On the upside, daily 20SMA offers initial resistance at 120.16, ahead of triangle’s resistance line at 120.27, followed by thin daily cloud’s 120.52/70 span and 200SMA at 120.86, barriers that mark an upside breakpoints.
Res: 120.16; 120.27; 120.52; 120.70
Sup: 119.85; 119.45; 119.20; 118.67
AUDUSD
Near-term studies are bullishly aligned, with the pair holding in extended corrective action off 0.6935 higher base. Bullish close of last Friday and weekly close, gives signals of further recovery. Fresh upside attempts today, probe above daily 20SMA, which also marks Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.7278/0.6935 downleg, at 0.7065, with sustained break higher, to give additional bullish signal. However, limited upside action could be expected for now, as overall structure remains firmly bearish. Top of 4-hour Ichimoku cloud offers next barrier at 0.7107, ahead of 0.7147; Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7278/0.6935 downleg.
Upside breakpoints lay at 0.7223/78, daily Ichimoku cloud base / former correction top of 18 Sep.
Res: 0.7083; 0.7107; 0.7147; 0.7223
Sup: 0.7041; 0.7000; 0.6977; 0.6935
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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