EURUSD-bears paused after finding solid support at 1.1154, Fibo 61.8%/20SMA

EURUSD


The Euro found solid support at 1.1154, low of last week’s pullback from 1.1712 peak, trading in near term consolidative mode above Friday’s low. Support marks Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.0807/1.1712 ascend, reinforced by rising daily 20SMA and daily Ichimoku cloud top, which lies at 1.1136. Four consecutive daily closes in red and bearish weekly candle, with long upper shadow, give strong bearish signals, as the pair broke and close below 200SMA, which now marks initial resistance at 1.1302. Next target lies at 1.1015, 18/19 Aug higher base, also Fibonacci 76.4% retracement. However, caution is required, as daily slow Stochastic is oversold and could signal longer pause in strong near-term downtrend, on reversal higher. Initial sup/res levels lay at 1.1154/1.1302, with longer stay above 1.1154, to confirm support and shift near-term focus higher. Look for a break above 200SMA, as initial signal of correction that will open next pivot at 1.1366. Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.1712.1.1154 downleg.

Res: 1.1257; 1.1302; 1.1366; 1.1433
Sup: 1.1154; 1.1136; 1.1100; 1.1015






GBPUSD

Cable bounces from fresh low at 1.5336, posted last Friday, on false break below 200SMA. Friday’s trading ended in long-legged Doji candle, signaling hesitation on approach to next strong support at 1.5327, low of 08 July. Prolonged consolidation could be anticipated, while the pair holds above 200SMA at 1.5365 that marks good support. The notion is supported by reversing daily slow Stochastic, which is oversold, with repeated close above 200SMA, to confirm. Extended recovery above Friday’s peak at 1.5441, to open next layers of strong resistance at 1.5507/18, last Thursday’s low/Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5816/1.5333 descend and signal longer pause in the downmove, on sustained break higher. Daily Ichimoku cloud base at 1.5548, is seen as ideal cap of extended corrective actions.

Res: 1.5441; 1.5460; 1.5518; 1.5548
Sup: 1.5393; 1.5365; 1.5333; 1.5327








USDJPY

The pair continues to trend higher, in near-term recovery rally off last week’s spike low at 116.13. Quick recovery left four consecutive daily bullish candles, with Friday’s break and close above 200SMA, giving another positive signal. The pair is eyeing next targets at 121.78, Fibonacci 61.8% of 125.26/116.13 downleg and daily Ichimoku cloud base at 122.35. However, daily indicators are still in negative territory, with bullish extension above 123 zone, descending daily 20SMA and daily cloud top, required to neutralize existing downside risk. Loss of initial support at 120.73, 200SMA, would sideline upside attempts, while break below daily Tenkan-sen at 120.29, would weaken near-term tone.

Res: 121.78; 122.01; 122.35; 122.96
Sup: 120.86; 120.73; 120.29; 119.78








AUDUSD

The pair ended Friday’s trading in long-legged Doji, signaling limited upside actions for now, as upticks were capped by descending daily Tenkan-sen, on rejection at psychological 0.72 barrier. Extended consolidation is seen as favored near-term scenario, as setup of daily studies remains bearish and keeps downside pressured. Initial pivotal barrier lies at 0.7204, Friday’s peak, ahead of breakpoint at 0.7294, falling daily 20SMA, break of which would provide relief. Otherwise, expect fresh attacks at range’s lower boundary at 0.7068 and fresh 6-year low at 0.7036, violation of which to signal resumption of larger downtrend and open initial target at psychological 0.7000 support.

Res: 0.7161; 0.7204; 0.7248; 0.7294
Sup: 0.7120; 0.7097; 0.7068; 0.7036