Technical analysis: GBP/CAD creeps up, eyeing the falling 200 MA

GBPCAD is sustaining its moderate bullish strides from the recently recorded two-and-a-half-year low of 1.6292, which has now steered the price over the Ichimoku cloud and the 50- and 100-period simple moving averages (SMAs). The unwavering bearish 200-period SMA continues to promote the downtrend. Meanwhile, the softened decline of the 100-period SMA, along with the gradual incline in the 50-period SMA, suggests the price may hike towards the 1.6548 level, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 1.7376 until 1.6292.

The improving Ichimoku lines imply that positive forces are active, while the short-term oscillators hint that positive momentum is looking feeble. The MACD is holding a tad above its red trigger line in the positive region. However, the positive charge of the stochastic oscillator is softening in the overbought section, while the RSI is struggling to reach the 70 level.

If negative price action intensifies, a fortified support zone from the red Tenkan-sen line at 1.6453 until the 1.6400 handle may prove difficult to dive past. If sellers overpower this critical section, the cloud’s floor at 1.6380 and the adjacent 1.6355 low could then be challenged. Moving lower, the pair may attempt to revisit the near 30-month low of 1.6292. Should the pair rekindle the downtrend, the 1.6190-1.6251 support boundary stretching back to the troughs from the first half of October 2019 could draw attention.

On the other hand, if the pair maintains its upward bearing, resistance could commence at the 23.6% Fibo of 1.6548 and the March 25 high of 1.6563 before a more profound positive retracement confronts the descending 200-period SMA at 1.6600. If the 200-period SMA fails to curb additional advances in the pair, the price may test the 1.6656 barrier prior to aiming for the 38.2% Fibo of 1.6707. If the pair overruns the 1.6721 high too, the bulls could then be encouraged to target the 1.6786 border.

Summarizing, GBPCAD is exhibiting a positive vibe as the price is improving above the cloud and the 50- and 100-period SMAs. However, should the price remain beneath the 23.6% Fibo of 1.6548 and the 1.6563 high, risks to the downside may linger.