Swissquote Bank Research Team
Swissquote Bank Ltd
Despite the punitive decision taken by the EU not to grant equivalence of Swiss stock market, countermeasures undertaken by Swiss authorities to safeguard Swiss equities have paid off. Since the change of regime, trading on Swiss stocks has gone smoothly, with both SMI and SPI indices gaining 1.60%, in line with European peers. CPI remained stable in June while the drop in industry PMI to 47.7 in June, its lowest range since October 2012, is becoming more of an issue.
Swiss inflation came in line with expectations at 0.60% as consumer prices underlying components have been evolving in opposing directions. The EU harmonized and core gauges came both at 0.70%, suggesting a slight acceleration and close to Swiss National Bank inflation June forecast of 0.60% for 2019. The situation on the front of the Swiss industry is yet more worrying, as the industry PMI points for the third consecutive time in contraction territory while production declines for the fourth time in a row at 48.2. Similar trends are shown by Raiffeisen’s SME PMI which fell to 52 (prior: 54.2) due to lower production, an increase in inventory and a drop in backlogs (from 56.8 to 50.7), its sharpest drop since March 2018, the inception date of the sentiment indicator.
Stay on top of the markets with Swissquote’s News & Analysis
EUR/CHF is maintained within the 1.11 range, bouncing back from 1.10795 (24/06/2019 low) and expected to trade sideways along 1.11300. June publication of the SNB's foreign exchange reserves on Friday could signal an intervention in the foreign exchange market if significant changes occur.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.