Stabilisation in yields and the JPY ahead of X-mas

Jens Peter Sørensen Danske Bank A/S

Market movers today

Another quiet day on the data front, but Swedish November retail sales and Norwegian December unemployment rate will be released today.

The central bank of Turkey is expected to maintain rates unchanged in its meeting today.

Overnight, the Japanese November inflation figures will be interesting in light of the BoJ's shift earlier this week, we are now calling for the first 10bp hike in Q2 2023.

The 60 second overview

The US equity market turned positive after better-than-expected earnings from Nike and FedEx as well as an improvement in US consumer confidence. US Treasury yields stabilised after the sell-off seen the last few days. US yields have declined modestly in Asian trading this morning.

The positive sentiment from US has had a positive spill over effect on the Asian equity markets this morning. Most indices in Asia have risen this morning.

The EUR and JPY has strengthen modestly against USD this morning, but both FX crosses are fairly stable after the big move in the JPY after the BoJ meeting this week.

Yesterday, the price of European natural gas fell to the lowest level since mid-June on the back of both plenty of inventor and a near-record import of LNG gas. On top of this the weather is turning milder.

FI: There was a modest bounce back in yields yesterday after the dramatic rise in global yields since last week's ECB meeting. The BTPS-Bund spread tightened 5bp as Italian government bonds rallied across the curve, but we are still well above the lows from early December, where the 10Y BTPS-Bund spread touched 180bp. It currently trades around the 210bp-level. The Bund ASW-spread also bounced back, and widened some 3bp to 65bp.

FX: Yesterday's session was characterised by a stabilisation in JPY-crosses following Tuesday's Bank of Japan surprise. USD/JPY is consequently back above 132 while EUR/USD continues to hover around the 1.06-level. NOK enjoyed the bounce in risk sentiment and oil prices while EUR/SEK continues to trade just below the 11.10 level. GBP has traded slightly on the back-foot with EUR/GBP back to the highest levels since November.

Credit: Under continued low liquidity the credit markets had a positive day yesterday taking its clues from the rally in the equity markets. Itraxx main tightened 4.3bp to 94.4bp while Xover tightened 28.6bp to 477.6bp.

Author

Jens Peter Sørensen

Danske Bank A/S

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