AUDUSD beat 7650/55 for a buy signal & target 7708/12

Daily Forecast - 31 March 2016

AUDUSD Spot

AUDUSD beat 7650/55 for a buy signal & target 7708/12 was hit. Looks like we could see a pull back today however. Minor support at 7654/50 but below here targets 7620/16. This should hold the downside initially at least but if we continue lower look for 7593/90 then an excellent buying opportunity at 7570/65.

Holding 7654/50 keeps bulls in control & re-targets 7680/82 then 7705/10. If we continue higher look for 7735/39 & longer term trend line 7760/65. A high for the day expected if we reach this far.

EURGBP Spot

EURGBP could continue higher to resistance at 7900/10. This could be the limit of the recovery & bears could start to gain control again from here. Having failed to beat the 200dma for over a month we could be seeing a longer term topping process. However other key prices today are February highs at 7928 & the March high at 7946. Only a weekly close above here tomorrow is positive.

Failure to beat 7900/10 targets minor support at 7875/71. Below here is more negative & targets 7558/55 then important short term support at 7830/28. A break below here adds pressure to target good support at 7798/93.

EURUSD Spot

EURUSD tried a break above 1.1330/35 so shorts were stopped above 1.1355 as we topped at 1.1364. However we are sitting at 1.1330/35 as I write so it is unclear whether we can believe the breakout. There is a good chance we will fail to hold above 1.1330/35 today, keeping the pair in a longer term sideways trend. Downside targets are 1.1314/10 then 1.1280/76. If we continue lower look for good support at 1.1239/34. This could hold the downside but longs need stops below 1.1210.

Bulls must hold the pair above 1.1330/35 to confirm a bullish breakout that should target February highs. We should struggle here in short term overbought conditions, but a break above 1.1390 can take the pair as far as 1.1455/60.

GBPUSD Spot

GBPUSD failure to beat important trend line resistance at 1.4470/80 is more negative for today. The pair have sold off to first support at 1.4365/55. This is important today & key to direction. A break below 1.4345 signals further losses to 1.4310/00, perhaps as far as strong support at 1.4260/55. Try longs with stops below 1.4225.

Holding first support at 1.4365/55 allows a recovery to 1.4400/05 but above here meets important trend line resistance at 1.4470/80. Of course this is the main challenge for bulls this week. A break & CLOSE above is required to signal the completion of the bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern. A break above March highs at 1.4514 is more positive again & helps to confirm a move towards resistance at 1.4575/80. If we can continue higher look for more important resistance at 1.4625/30.

USDJPY Spot

USDJPY very minor resistance at 112.41/44 then the main resistance of the day again at 112.66/70. We should struggle here initially but a break higher today not out of the question & targets a selling opportunity at 113.05/10. Shorts need stops above 113.40.

Holding below 112.40 targets 112.25/21 then yesterday's low at 112.00/99. If we continue lower look for some support at 111.85. We are oversold short term so a low for the day possible here. However a break below a break below 111.70 keeps the pressure on for 111.54/50 & 111.39/35.