Daily Forecast - 19 February 2015
GBPUSD
GBPUSD failure to beat very strong resistance at 1.5475/85 is a warning after 3 weeks of gains. Bear in mind we are in a longer term negative trend and have become overbought. We are only experiencing a correction in a bear trend and sooner or later the bear trend should resume. It looks likely to be sooner. Watch first support at 1.5420/15. Be ready to go with a break lower to target the most important support of the day at 1.5370/65. A low is possible, but longs need a stop below 1.5345. A break below 1.5365 is a sell signal and indicates a resumption of the negative trend. We could quickly target 1.5315/10 then support at 1.5290.
Strong resistance at 1.5475/85 is an excellent selling opportunity again today with stops above 1.550. An unexpected break higher however is a buy signal to target 1.5525 & perhaps as far as resistance at 1.5555.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD same levels apply for today with first support at 7780. A bounce from here re-targets resistance at 7825/30. We should struggle here again but shorts need stops above 7850. Be ready to go with a break higher however to target strong resistance at 7875/80. A very good chance of a high for the day here and it should be worth trying shorts with a stop above 7900. An unexpected break higher however could go on to target 7935/7940.
First support at 7785/80 could now hold the downside but longs need a stop below 7765. A break lower is negative again and risks a retest of this week’s low at 7750/45. Failure here today would target 7735 then support at 7715/10. It could be worth trying longs here with a stop below 7695.
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