|

S&P 500 Index: Is a crash coming? Stretched indicator implies 600-point plunge (or more)

  • Current levels exceed those seen weeks before major market declines such as the 2008 crisis.
  • The odds of remaining at these levels for a long time are extremely low.
  • A crash of over 600 points in the S&P 500 Index is on the cards.

American stock indices are trading at record levels and persistently beating hitting new all-time highs. Euphoria levels are skyrocketing, and everyone is celebrating the effectiveness of the policies implemented by President Donald Trump.

Indicators in the weekly range of the S&P500 are reaching extreme levels suggesting that a sharp correction in the U.S. market may be near.

S&P500
The MACD on the weekly chart is reaching levels not seen since the S&P500 launched in 1957. 
Also, the Standard Deviation Indicator in the ultra long term configuration – 200 weekly periods – hit 319 points.

In May 2015, shortly before the S&P500 fell 337 points (-15.73%) the standard deviation indicator marked 300 points.
In September 2018, shortly before the S&P500 fell 598 points (-20.33%), the standard deviation indicator marked 300 points.

Author

Tomas Salles

Tomas Salles

FXStreet

Tomàs Sallés was born in Barcelona in 1972, he is a certified technical analyst after having completing specialized courses in Spain and Switzerland.

More from Tomas Salles
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD climbs toward 1.1800 on broad USD weakness

EUR/USD gathers bullish momentum and advances toward 1.1800 in the second half of the day on Tuesday. The US Dollar weakens and helps the pair stretch higher after the employment report showed that Nonfarm Payrolls declined by 105,000 in October before rising by 64,000 in November.

GBP/USD gains ground above 1.3400 on UK PMI optimism

The GBP/USD pair gains momentum to around 1.3425 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling edges higher against the Greenback on the upbeat UK preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index data. Traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak later on Wednesday. 

Gold extends the range play around $4,300

Gold edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains confined in a multi-day-old trading range. Dovish Fed-inspired bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar, along with the risk-off mood, acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven bullion. However, hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal hold back the XAU/USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. Traders also seem reluctant ahead of the crucial US consumer inflation figures on Thursday.

XRP dips as bearish pressure persists despite ETF growth

Ripple is finding footing above $1.90 at the time of writing on Tuesday after a bearish wave swept across the broader cryptocurrency market, building on persistent negative sentiment.

Ukraine-Russia in the spotlight once again

Since the start of the week, gold’s price has moved lower, but has yet to erase the gains made last week. In today’s report we intend to focus on the newest round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, whilst noting the release of the US Employment data later on day and end our report with an update in regards to the tensions brewing in Venezuela.

BNB Price Forecast: BNB slips below $855 as bearish on-chain signals and momentum indicators turn negative

BNB, formerly known as Binance Coin, continues to trade down around $855 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after a slight decline the previous day. Bearish sentiment further strengthens as BNB’s on-chain and derivatives data show rising retail activity.