Nick Mastrandrea
Market Tea Leaves
Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 4:20 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar: Up at 94.650 the US Dollar is up 62 ticks and trading at 94.650.
Energies: November Crude is down at 47.31.
Financials: The Dec 30 year bond is down 18 ticks and trading at 158.12.
Indices: The Dec S&P 500 emini ES contract is down 4 ticks and trading at 2024.50.
Gold: The December gold contract is trading down at 1172.70. Gold is 104 ticks lower than its close.
Initial Conclusion
This is a not a correlated market. The dollar is up+ and crude is down- which is normal but the 30 year bond is trading lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The indices are down and Crude is trading down which is not correlated. Gold is trading down which is correlated with the US dollar trading up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don’t have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
Asia traded mixed with half the exchanges trading higher and the other half lower. As of this writing Europe is trading mainly higher with the exception of the London exchange which is fractionally lower.
Possible Challenges To Traders Today
- FOMC Member Brainard Speaks at 10 AM EST. This is major.
- NAHB Housing Market Index is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
- FOMC Member Lacker Speaks at 12 PM EST. This is major.
Currencies
On Friday the Swiss Franc made it’s move at around 9:30 AM EST before the economic news was reported. The USD hit a low at around that time and the Swiss Franc hit a high. If you look at the charts below the USD gave a signal at around 9:30 AM EST, while the Swiss Franc also gave a signal at just about the same time. Look at the charts below and you’ll see a pattern for both assets. The USD hit a low at around 9:30 AM EST and the Swiss Franc hit a high. These charts represent the latest version of Trend Following Trades and I’ve changed the timeframe to a Renko chart to display better. This represented a shorting opportunity on the Swiss Franc, as a trader you could have netted 20 plus ticks on this trade. We added a Donchian Channel to the charts to show the signals more clearly. Remember each tick on the Swiss Franc is equal to $12.50 versus $10.00 that we usually see for currencies.
Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades built on a Ninja Trader platform
Bias
On Friday we said our bias was neutral as the indices didn’t show any direction on Friday morning. The Dow gained 74 points and the other indices gained ground as well. Today we aren’t dealing with a correlated market and our bias is neutral.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Commentary
On Friday we gave a neutral bias as the Bonds were up, crude was up as well as the USD. When everything is up there is no correlation, hence the neutral bias which means the markets could go in any direction. Despite not-too-stellar numbers from the JOLTS Job Openings (5.37M versus 5.77M expected) the markets gained ground. I guess traders felt that with a number that didn’t meet expectation, the Fed won’t be in a hurry to raise interest rates. This is pure speculation on our part but time will tell if that’s the case.
Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. The following Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disclaimer should be noted.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.
There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Trading in the commodities markets involves substantial risk and YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY, and thus is not appropriate for everyone. You should carefully consider your financial condition before trading in these markets, and only risk capital should be used.
In addition, these markets are often liquid, making it difficult to execute orders at desired prices. Also, during periods of extreme volatility, trading in these markets may be halted due to so-called “circuit breakers” put in place by the CME to alleviate such volatility. In the event of a trading halt, it may be difficult or impossible to exit a losing position.
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