• Speculative interest anticipating a dismal outcome.
  • US employment data will be traded accordingly to how could it affect odds for a rate cut.

The American dollar heads into the release of the monthly Nonfarm Payroll report with quite a soft tone, undermined by speculation that the Fed could cut rates in the near term, and mounting global trade tensions. In this scenario, the once all-relevant US employment report can hardly be a game changer.

The US economy is expected to have added 185K new jobs in May, while the unemployment rate is seen steady at 3.6%, a 49-year low. Average hourly earnings are forecasted to have risen by .03% MoM and by 3.2% YoY, in line with the yearly average.

The thing is that after a series of disappointing employment-related reports the market is “suspecting” a dismal reading coming. The ADP survey showed that the private sector added just 27,000 new jobs in May, way below the yearly average and the expected 180K. Additionally, weekly unemployment claims were higher than anticipated throughout the month, although holding near multi-decade lows.

That said, market players are sort of ready for a reading below analysts forecast, rather than to upbeat numbers.

A one-standing disappointing report won't bend Fed's hand, but for sure will increase odds of a rate cut, therefore adding pressure on the vulnerable greenback. The market will focus on wages, as easing growth there will be more critical for the central bank, than jobs' creation.

A positive surprise, on the other hand, could trigger a dollar's comeback, particularly against European rivals, as despite their recent recoveries, no relevant breakout has occurred, so far.

Anyway, the market will react accordingly to the change in odds for a rate cut in the US.

Major pairs' probable reactions

The EUR/USD pair has failed twice this week to sustain gains beyond the 1.1300 level, although holds on to gains nearby. Same goes for the Pound-Dollar, struggling to extend gains beyond the 1.2700 figure. Given that ECB's statement was mostly encouraging, and that the Brexit political chaos is in a stalemate, for now, both pairs are meant to rise on numbers missing expectations.

The more interesting reaction, however, could take place around USD/JPY. The pair is at multi-month lows but without signs of exhaustion, neither of a trend-change coming. Barely holding above 108.00, speculative interest will try to push the pair toward the flash-crash lows and test bulls' determination there. For sure won't happen this Friday, but a dismal NFP could be the perfect catalyst for such a bearish run.

Canada will also release employment data, which means that the USD/CAD pair will probably be the most volatile and risky one to trade unless the reports' results are clearly divergent.


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD turns below 1.10 as market mood eases

EUR/USD has dropped below 1.10 as the market mood improves. Earlier, it hit three-week highs as the stock market crash and rush into bonds is raising the chances of the US Fed cutting rates. Further coronavirus headlines are awaited.


GBP/USD hits new 2020 low amid Brexit rhetoric, coronavirus headlines

GBP/USD has dipped below 1.2850, hitting a new 2020 low as concerns about a no-trade-deal Brexit are weighing on the pound. Coronavirus-linked USD weakness is minimal in this pair.


Crypto summer will be back in the next spring

The attention of the financial world is right now on the equity segment. The force with which prices are moving down is extraordinary, with terrifying technical details such as a close below 3000 points on the S&P 500… 100 points down!

Read more

WTI remains under pressure around $45.00

Nothing new around crude oil prices, with rising concerns on the Chinese COVID-19 and its potential impact on the economy and the demand for the commodity keeping traders’ sentiment well depressed.

Oil News

FXStreet launches Real-Time Trading Signals

FXStreet Signals offers access to explanatory live webinars, real-time notifications when signals are triggered and exclusive membership to the company’s Telegram group, where users get direct guidance by our analysts and get room to discuss and interact.

More info

Forex Majors