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No BoJ intervention anytime soon

Brian Twomey Brian's Investment

The concept to an Emergency Meeting by the BOJ and MOF doesn't exist. Since 2000, the BOJ and MOF meet every month to evaluate USD/JPY and other market matters. Then the monthly intervention report is released.

The current report covers February 28 to March 27 then January 30 to February 27, December 28 to January 29. Note the same dates releases every month. Prior to monthly meetings, the BOJ and MOF met every 3 months dating to 1991.

Trade for the first 10 days of March: Exports 2,865,482 Vs Imports 2,652,413. Trade for March runs +213,069. and +3.4%. March 2023 for the first 10 days ran Exports 2,772,505 Vs Imports 3,435,267 for negative 662, 762 and minus 22%.

April 7 to 13 runs Exchange rates at USD/JPY 151.42, EUR/JPY 163.81, GBP/JPY 191.14.

April 10 is the release of Imports and Exports. USD/JPY runs +98% correlations to Exports and +77% to Imports. Imports and Exports run +77%.

Imports and Exports brought Inflation down rather than The FED and Powell as Powell was so late to the game of fighting Inflation.

Fed Funds Vs Imports Correlations = +78% Vs Exports +45%. Japan Imports Vs Exports = +77%. Fed Imports and Exports = +75%. USD/JPY Vs Imports +69% and Exports +42%.

USD/JPY correlations matches to Fed Funds Vs Imports and Exports.

Every central bank Imports Vs Exports = +70%.

Japan Import average = 0.771 Vs 0.579 Exports. February 1.1 Imports Vs 1.3 exports. Exports yearly are overbougt to extremes.

Inflation

BOJ Inflation average = 3.14. Imports and Exports trade Below 3.14. Exports Vs Inflation = -24%. Imports Vs Inflation -38%. Higher Inflation drops Imports and Exports while low Inflation raises Imports and Exports.

USD/JPY Vs Inflation = -59%. Higher Inflation drops USD/JPY. Low Inflation, higher USD/JPY.

FED Imports Vs Inflation -30% Vs Exports -23%. DXY Vs Inflation -27%.

Producer prices vs inflation

Japan, Subtract food, Energy and Trade Vs Inflation = Correlation -0.09.

PPI Average 0.217 Vs Inflation 3.85. Core Inflation 3.85 Vs 3.14 headline. Core Inflation is a market myth.

PPI actual vs inflation

Correlation -23% Vs PPI Average 0.075. February 0.2. Correlation 0.23% Vs 0.2 = -0.2 Vs + 0.2.

Core PPI is another market Myth.

BoJ interest rates

5 day Average = 0.0764.

10 day = 0.0686.

15 day = 0.0431.

20 day = 0.03.

25 day = 0.0228.

No BOJ intervention anytime soon.

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

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