Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
An incredible run lower on the euro over the past four weeks has seen almost a straight line decline from the neckline of the completed double top at $1.3670 all the way back to the implied target at $1.3375. The euro remains incredibly weak with the RSI currently down at 25, and yet still there is little sign of any real recovery. There was a minor intraday bounce off $1.3365 but the intraday hourly chart shows the momentum indicators merely unwinding an oversold position which looks to just be renewing downside potential. Watch the falling 89 hour moving average (now $1.3418) which has been the limit to many of the recent recoveries/consolidations. If the euro starts to consistently trade above the 89 day ma then perhaps this could be the signal for a near term recovery. At some stage there will inevitably be a technical rally on the euro as it has lost over 300 pips in 3 weeks. The daily chart shows the $1.3475 neckline of the large double top as a natural initial target for any technical rally.
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