Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Most currency pairs look ranged for now. Dollar Index can trade within 106-104 while Euro can remain above 1.04 with limited upside to 1.06. EURJPY can trade within 145-141 while Pound and Aussie can test 1.20 and 0.66/6650 respectively before again bouncing back to higher levels. Dollar Yen can test 138 before falling back to 135-132 while USDRUB has fallen from just below 64. USDCNY is bearish while below 7.05 and could slowly move towards 6.90/88. USDINR can rise to 82.75-83.00 before coming off from there while EURINR can test 87-88 while above 85.
The US Treasury yields have fallen back again. We retain our view that the upside could be capped and there is more room to fall before a reversal is seen. The German yields have come down failing to get a strong follow-through rise. The yields are likely to fall more from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are moving up gradually. While there is room to move further up, key resistances have to be breached to become bullish and completely negate the chances of a fall-back again. The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy outcome is due today.
Dow has declined further and any break below 33500, if seen, can lead to a test of deeper support at 33150-33000. DAX has fallen below 14350 and a further fall from here can drag the index lower in the coming sessions. Nikkei remains range bound. Shanghai needs a strong break above 3220-3225 to strengthen its bullish momentum. Nifty has scope to rise toward higher levels while above support at 18600-18500.
Most of the commodities looks ranged. Brent and WTI continues to fall and has scope to test key support at $77.55-75 and $70-68 respectively in the near term. Gold, Silver and Copper looks range bound for a while.
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The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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