KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
Currencies
EUR/USD
EUR/USD rebounded sharply early December as the ECB failed to deliver the policy easing the market expected. The pair settled in the 1.07/10 area after the Fed lift‐off. China turmoil had only a moderate impact on EUR/USD.
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP jumped also higher after the December ECB decision. Later, euro strength was replaced by sterling weakness. Global risk‐off sentiment and the commodity decline delayed BoE rate hike expectations and Brexit uncertainty weighed on sterling too.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY failed to profit from the Fed lift‐off. Later in December and especially early January, the pair dropped below the 120 mark as the yen attracted safe haven flows due to the China crisis .
EUR/CZK
The Czech koruna held close to the central bank’s (CNB) floor of EUR/CZK 27. The CZK more or less plays the role of safe haven of the region and is unaffected by global volatility.
EUR/PLN
Contrary to the Czech koruna and the Hungarian forint, global uncertainty caused more pronounced losses of the zloty. Uncertainty on the fiscal policy of the new government and its impact on the central bank weigh on the PLN.
EUR/HUF
EUR/HUF is drifting higher in the 312/318 trading range. For now, the impact from global uncertainty on the forint is modest. A further improvement in economic fundamentals gives the forint downside protection.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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