Steve Miley, MSTA
MarketChartist
A firm rebound last week to reverse above the down trend lines from July and mid-November. But we have also stressed that "whilst below 1.5827, we still see downside risks as intact, leaving negative pressures through mid-December".
Despite the Monday dip through supports, the Tuesday rebound through the 1.5748/58/65 area sees risk for a push up through the latter November failure peak at 1.5827, for a better base and upside pressures.
What Changes This? Above 1.5827 signals a base and range theme, only shifting positive above 1.5945.
For Today:
We see an upside bias for 1.5827; break here aims for 1.5946.
But below 1.5688 opens risk down to 1.5612/01, maybe the 1.5541 cycle low.
Short-term Outlook - Downside Risks: Whilst below 1.5827 the downside bias is intact.
A modest, interim target below the 1.5541 new cycle low is seen next at 1.5503/00.
The risk still into mid-December, however, is for a bearish extension to a key 2013 swing low at 1.5430.
Overshoot threat for year-end is to the 78.6% retrace support of the 2013-14 rally at 1.5320.
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart
Daily GBPUSD Chart
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