What started out as a bit of a tug of war between USD bulls and bears in the morning session of North American trade, turned in to a mauling against the world’s reserve currency in the afternoon. The USD is suffering against all of its currency brethren as a combination of uninspiring data points and mixed messages from Federal Reserve voters is giving investors fits. All in all, it appears traders are anticipating the Fed to be more patient in their quest to raise interest rates as most of the voters are preaching data dependence; and data hasn’t been great.
If whether the Fed will raise interest rates or not was the only consideration for traders, life would be a whole heck of a lot easier, but that simply isn’t the case. Issues with Greece, the British election, Middle-Eastern skirmishes, and a Chinese slowdown are all additional factors that are weighing on the minds of traders, and can influence markets on a whim if they spring up.
Therefore, even though the USD has been getting its tail kicked over the last few days, the tide can turn rather quickly, and all it might take is a blatant technical level for investors to pay attention. The GBP/USD is one currency pair in particular that could have such a revelation. Since mid-March the 1.50 level in this pair has been a virtual ceiling, turning away any attempts at advancement (outside of the post-FOMC spike), and this week’s rally back up to it may be yet another example in the series. Be cautious though as the UK will be releasing employment data which hasn’t missed consensus since the November 2014 release. If that streak continues, the GBP/USD may blast right through 1.50 and reestablish itself as a recovering asset.
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