AUDNZD: Avoid the Noid

Well, I suppose we asked for this, didn’t we. Volatility in currency markets is bordering on insane as a variety of events have hit the wires over the last week or so. From the Swiss National Bank pulling the rug out on their EUR/CHF peg to European Central Bank rumors of Quantitative Easing and everything in between, the market is kicking in to overreaction overdrive. Sprinkle in market moving central bank meetings from Denmark, Japan, UK, Turkey, and Canada and it’s no wonder that volatility is spiking across the board. However, do you ever wish that you could trade without having to worry about annoying super large moves that destroy liquidity and trading accounts in the process? Perhaps we need to look to the Antipodean region of the world for a little solace and avoid the annoying noise.

Back in the 1980’s Domino’s Pizza ran a successful ad campaign called “Avoid the Noid.” For the uninitiated, The Noid was a character who would essentially try to destroy your pizza enjoying experience. Whether it was making your hot pizza cold, or making it take longer than 30 minutes for it to be delivered to you, The Noid was there to try to annoy you (get it? A-NOID; THE-NOID). If we were to transpose The Noid to the actions of the past week, you can see that he’s everywhere. However, the AUD/NZD has largely been unaffected by all of the craziness, and may avoid large illiquid moves as a consequence of whatever the ECB decides to do tomorrow.

Finding technical levels of support or resistance may actually have meaning in this pair for the remainder of the week as the only major news events scheduled for either Australia or New Zealand is Aussie Home Sales and Kiwi Buziness PMI; neither of which is expected to be too annoying. Interestingly, the AUD/NZD recently completed a Fibonacci based Bearish Gartley Pattern that could signal that there is resistance just above current levels. Unless the central banks in these nations decide to join the Black Swan party with an unscheduled change in their policy, this may be the most logical major currency pair to trade if you seek to “Avoid the Noid.”