Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian employment market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.
Employment Change continues to show sharp fluctuations. After two declines, the indicator surged in February, posting a gain of 47.3 thousand. This easily beat the estimate of 15.3 thousand. The markets are expecting another gain in the March release, with an estimate standing at 7.3 thousand. Will the indicator again beat the estimate?
Sentiment and Levels
The RBA has not been shy about the fact that it wants to see the Aussie below the 0.90 level, and we can expect the RBA to continue to try and “talk down” the currency. In the US, market sentiment remains positive about the economy and recent US employment numbers have been decent, although not as high as the markets had expected. The US dollar has room to move higher if upcoming US numbers don’t disappoint. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.9526, 0.9442, 0.9368, 0.9283, 0.9180 and 0.9000.
5 Scenarios
Within expectations: 4.0K to 10.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
Above expectations: 10.1K to 14.0K: A strong reading could push the pair above one resistance level.
Well above expectations: Above 14.0K: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel AUD/USD upwards, and a second resistance line could be broken.
Below expectations: 1.0K to 3.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
Well below expectations: Below 1.0K: A very poor reading will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy and AUD/USD could break below a second support level.
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