GBPUSD, 240 min
Sterling, which has been under across-the-board pressure, was given a toehold by better than expected UK labour data yesterday. GBPUSD lifted to a 1.4219 high today, which put in a little space from the five-year low that was clocked just ahead of the data release. The unemployment unexpectedly dipped to 5.1% y/y in November, down from 5.2% at the previous reading and the lowest since August 2005. This takes the jobless rate farther below the BoE’s non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) at 5.5%, though the average household income in the three months to November ebbed to 2.0% y/y from 2.4% y/y in the previous month. The data follows dovish guidance from BoE’s Carney, who yesterday said that now wasn’t the right time to tighten policy, but should help the pound find a footing after a period of pronounced underperformance.
On technical side the pair still looks weak. GBPUSD has dropped some 150 pips since my Tweet on the pair and has passed beyond my target. Important weekly support levels are not far away with the first one being at 1.4100 but this shouldn’t stop us from looking to sell the rallies as long as the market stays in a down trend. The 1.4232 – 1.4252 area has technical significance as it has a small Fibonacci cluster, a resistance level and 30 period SMA coinciding while the upper end of the bear channel isn’t that far either. If market rallies further the next potential level for short trades is between 1.4280 and 1.4300. We look for a rally to either of these levels and then sell signals to trigger short trades. Targets are: 1.4125 (T1) and 1.3850 (T2).
Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
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