From the fall of 2015, the demand for Lumber skyrocketed driving prices from $213 to almost $650 by mid-2018 where it peaked. The second half of 2018 was a very different story as demand eased creating a glut in the market which resulted in weak commodity prices which ultimately led to a steep decline back to $300 by October, previously seen in November 2016. Throughout the summer of 2019, lumber managed to hold above its 200 period daily moving average initiating an uptrend only to be devastated by the COVID pandemic in March of this year where prices bottomed out at $257.
Since April of this year, lumber has put in a strong performance, creating higher highs and higher lows each month, surpassing the February and March highs before the decline. Next hurdle is twin resistance at (1). What happens here could determine the future direction for lumber prices for the short to medium term. Short term sentiment amongst small participants is approx 74% bearish at the time of writing.
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