GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Pound Sterling stays vulnerable, braces for action-packed week
- The Pound Sterling tumbled to its lowest level since mid-August against the US Dollar.
- Top-tier US economic data and the UK’s Autumn Budget could rock the GBP/USD pair.
- The Bear Cross on the daily chart keeps the downside open for the Pound Sterling.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) remained at its lowest level in over two months versus the US Dollar (USD), leaving the GBP/USD vulnerable below the 1.3000 threshold.
Pound Sterling dropped and USD popped on safe-haven demand
The demand for the safe-haven USD dominated throughout the week for varied reasons, including the heightened uncertainty leading into the November 5 US presidential election, rising Middle East geopolitical tensions and earnings season globally.
There were no signs of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, as the former continued to attack the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah in Beirut.
Meanwhile, markets priced in higher chances of a victory for the Republican nominee and the former US President Donald Trump in the presidential race. Trump’s trade and expansionary fiscal policies are seen as inflationary, calling for higher interest rates and the Greenback.
Furthermore, investors remained wary ahead of earnings reports from US titans such as Tesla Inc., Amazon, Google, Nvidia, etc., scurrying for safety in the Greenback. Persistent bets for a less aggressive easing policy likely to be adopted by the Fed also boded well for the buck.
This risk-averse market environment exacerbated the pain in the Pound Sterling, which was already hit a week ago by the increased bets of a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut next month after a bigger-than-expected cooldown in the UK inflation for September.
Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on October 16 that the annual UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell sharply to 1.7% in September from 2.2% in August, the lowest reading since April 2021.
However, heading into the weekend, the Pound Sterling recovered some ground as the USD rally took a breather ahead of mid-tier US economic data releases. A cautiously optimistic market mood also allowed the risk-sensitive GBP to find some demand.
Top-tier US economic data and UK Budget on tap
Clocks turn back in the UK at the onset of an action-packed week.
After taking a breather, the market volatility is likely to ramp up in the upcoming week, with a bunch of high-impact economic releases due from the US. Meanwhile, the UK is set to release its Autumn Budget, which could have a significant impact on the local bond market and the Pound Sterling.
Monday is a quiet calendar on both sides of the Atlantic but Tuesday sees the release of the US Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings data.
On Wednesday, the UK Autumn Budget and the US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data will hog the limelight.
BoE policymaker Sarah Breeden will speak early Thursday while the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for September, and the Jobless Claims data will be reported later that day in the American trading hours.
The all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls and the wage inflation data will be eagerly awaited on Friday, which will provide fresh hints on the size and the pace of the next Fed rate cuts. The ISM Manufacturing PMI will also hold some relevance heading into the Fed’s ‘blackout period’, starting from Saturday until the November 7 monetary policy meeting.
Amidst a busy calendar, traders will also pay close attention to the Middle East geopolitical risks and the uncertainty around the November 5 US presidential election.
GBP/USD: Technical Outlook
The GBP/USD pair battled the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2969 as the downtrend extended into the fourth consecutive week.
A weekly closing below that level could provide fresh zest to Pound Sterling sellers.
The next bearish target is seen at the June 12 high of 1.2861, below which the critical 200-day SMA cap at 1.2803 will be challenged.
If buyers fail to defend that key support, a fresh downside could initiate toward the August 8 low of 1.2665.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds well below the 50 level, currently near 40, backing the downside bias.
Adding credence to the bearish outlook, the 21-day SMA crossed the 50-day SMA from above on a daily closing basis on Wednesday, charting out a Bear Cross.
On the flip side, a corrective move higher will need a sustained break above the 1.3000 psychological level, followed by the acceptance above the 21-day SMA at 1.3092.
Further up, the 50-day SMA at 1.3143 could be next on the buyers’ radars.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Author
Dhwani Mehta
FXStreet
Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.
