GBP/USD Forecast: Break through 1.6500 now likely


It’s pretty notable that from continued up beating macroeconomic data and chances of a sooner rate hike, the UK situation turned 180° degrees over this last month: data has been disappointing continuously and Thursday numbers have been no exception, with Retail Sales growing just 0.1% in July against an expected grow of 0.4%. Also, public sector net borrowing excluding financial interventions was in deficit by £0.2 billion in July 2014, £0.8 billion lower than July 2013.

The GBP/USD therefore trades at fresh 4 month lows having reached today 1.6563 and with immediate static support at 1.6548, past April monthly low. The technical picture is still pretty bearish, with the 4 hours chart showing indicators steady near oversold levels unable to pick up, and 20 SMA offering dynamic resistance around 1.6650, also 200 DMA. As long as below this last, the downside is favored with a break below 1.6550 signaling a downward continuation towards the 1.6500 figure in the short term, while once below this last 1.6465, March 24th daily low comes next.

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