GBP/USD Forecast: Dual energy crisis set to fuel further falls, levels to watch

UK rate hikes coming? Sterling has found little comfort in Governor Andrew Bailey's repeated comments about raising rates before halting bond buys as a duo of energy issues looms. 

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has instructed the army to prepare for delivering gasoline to petrol stations as a shortage of lorry drivers already caused dry ups in several places. The government also loosened immigration and competition requirements to resolve the crisis.

Brexit resulted in fewer EU nationals delivering goods on Britain's roads and temporarily reversing policies should help alleviate pressures. In the meantime, sterling suffers. 

The bigger crisis for the world comes from China. Growing global demand and a shortage in coal resulted in power outages in the highly industrialized northeast. Factories may fail to deliver goods on time and stall the global recovery from the pandemic. That boosts the safe-haven dollar. 

Apart from energy issues, the greenback is benefiting from rising US yields. Returns on 10-year Treasury yields jumped above 1.50% on Monday, making the dollar more attractive. The move began after the Federal Reserve signaled it would taper bond buys last week. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress later in the day and will have the chance to comment on the current energy crisis – and also on the departures of two hawkish bank members. Both Eric Rosengren and Robert Kaplan were actively trading stocks around Fed decisions, and these revelations brought them down. 

Investors will also eye the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence gauge for September, which is set to edge higher. On Monday, the US reported an increase of 1.8% in Durable Goods Orders, an upbeat development. 

See Conference Board Consumer Confidence Preview: Unhappy but still spending

Overall, worries about energy are set to keep the pressure on GBP/USD with other news set to play only second fiddle. 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

Positive momentum on the four-hour chart is all but gone, and the pair failed to break above the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, unsuccessful upward moves resulted in lower highs – another bearish signal.

Some support awaits at the daily low of 1.3660. It is followed by 1.3640 and 1.3610, last week's trough.

The first upside level to watch is 1.3690, which capped cable early last week. It is followed by 1.3730 and 1.3755, both resistance lines from recent sessions.