USD Index: Final decline below the August low?

Nearer term $ index outlook :
In the Oct 27th email, said that further near term upside would likely be limited. The market did indeed push to a marginal new high at 97.80 on Oct 28th, testing both the bearish trendline since March/ceiling of the bull channel from Aug) and before quickly stalling. Seen as a near term topping within the extended period of wide ranging since the March high at 100.40. Though viewed as a large correction with eventual new highs above 100.40, there is scope for another month of 2 of this broad chop and even a final downleg below the Aug low at 92.60 first (see longer term below). Nearer term, the upmove from late Aug occurred in 3 waves (A-B-C, argues a correction) and may be forming a large falling wedge like pattern since March (they break down into 5 legs), adding to the potential for declines below that Aug 92.60 low (see in red on daily chart below). Support before there is seen at 96.50/65 (recent lows, broken highs from Sept), 95.20/30 and the base of the bull channel (currently at 94.25/35). Key resistance remains in that 97.75/90 area. Bottom line : seen topping from last week's 97.80 high, with potential for declines all the way back to the Aug low at 92.60 and even below.

Strategy/position:
Still short from the Oct 27th resell at 96.90 and will continue to stop on a close 20 ticks above that bearish trendline since March, a good overall risk/reward.

Long term outlook:
No change in the very long held view of an extended period of wide consolidating (months) from that March high at 100.40, as the market corrects the surge from the May 2014 low at 78.90 (seen as wave IV in the rally from the May 2011 low at 72.70), and with eventual new highs after (within wave V). However as been discussing, more consolidating is favored first, "ideally" into the end of the year before resuming that longer term upmove. The seasonal chart is lower into the end of Dec while long term technicals remain bearish (still sell mode on the weekly macd), supporting the view of another few months of broad ranging ahead. Note too that the long mentioned, major support remains just below the Aug low at 92.60 in the 92.00/25 area (38% retracement from the May 2014 low at 78.90/wave III and the base of that potential wedge since March). Markets have a way of eventually reaching these key areas, "fits" the nearer term view (see shorter term above), and would be an "ideal" area to finally complete a more major bottom (see in red on weekly chart/2nd chart below). Bottom line : action from March seen as a large correction with eventual new highs above 100.40, but with scope for as much as another few months of wide ranging/consolidating "ideally" into the 92.00/25 area before resuming the long term upmove.

Strategy/position:
With scope at least some further declines below the 92.60 low as part of this larger period of wide consolidating, would stay with the longer term bearish bias that was put in place on Aug 26th at 94.75. However with the magnitude of further downside a question, will be looking to reassess on such further lows.

Current:
Near term: short Oct 27th at 96.90, topping (potentially important topping) seen in process.
Last: short Sep 22 at 96.25, took profit Oct 21 above t-line from Oct 1 (94.85, closed 95.05, 125 ticks).

Longer term: bear bias Aug 26 at 94.75, scope for fall below 92.60 as part of correction since March.
Last: :bear bias Jun 23rd at 95.50 to neutral Jul 15th at 97.15.