USD Index, major bottoming...

Nearer term $ index outlook :

The market is seen in process of a bottoming, and with eventual gains back to the Apr 4th high at 80.60 and above (potentially significantly higher, see longer term below). Note that the upmove from the Mar 13th low at 79.25 to that 80.60 high occurred in 5 waves (see numbering on daily chart below), and argues that the upside is not "complete". Nearby support is seen at the bullish trendline from Apr 10th (currently at 79.60/70, with a break raising the risk for another couple weeks of a broader bottoming), and the bullish trendline from key Oct (currently at 79.25/35). Resistance before the 80.60 high is seen at 80.15/35 (apex of the late March triangle, where the trendlines meet).

Strategy/position:
With the market seen bottoming for gains above the 80.60 high (and potentially a lot higher), would stay with the buy that was put in place on Apr 14th at 79.70. Initially stop on a close 10 ticks below that bullish trendline from Oct, but getting much more aggressive on a break above the 80.60 high.

Long term outlook:

As discussed above, a more significant bottoming may also be occurring, with potential for gains all the way back to the July 2013 high at 84.75, and even the ceiling of the large, triangle type consolidation since Nov 2005 (currently at 85.30/65, see weekly chart/2nd chart below). Lots of longer term bullish signs are evident and include the mid March, 20 week cycle low, major support in the whole 79.00/35 area (bullish trendlines from May 2011 and March 2013) and the May 2011 test of the base of the large triangle (argues test of ceiling next). Additionally, the nearer term upside pattern from March 13th is not "complete" (see shorter term above) and argues that a resumption of this longer term upmove may be nearing. "Pivotal" resistance is seen at the bearish trendline from Nov (currently at 81.25/40) as a break/close above may trigger a further, big picture upside acceleration (and confirm a more major bottom). A final note, there is some scope for a resumption of this longer term upmove directly ahead. However, the seasonal chart for the $ index is lower into early May (see 3rd chart below), raising the risk for another few weeks of this broader bottoming, before the bigger picture rally gets going.

Strategy/position:
With evidence and confidence rising of an important bottoming (and gains to the ceiling of the multi-year triangle), would stay with the longer term bullish bias that was put in place on Jan 6th at 80.65

Current:
Near term : long Mar 19th at 79.70, stop on close 10 ticks below bull t-line from Oct.
Last : long Mar 19 at 79.75, flattened Apr 8 below base of triangle from late Mar (80.10, closed 79.75).

Longer term : bull bias Jan 6 at 80.65, increasing evidence of a more major bottom.
Last: : bearish bias Sept 23rd at 80.45 to neutral Jan 6th at 80.65.