FX Thoughts for the Day

USD-CHF @ 0.9290/93...Needs to break overhead resistances to rise further
R: 0.9320 / 0.9385
S:0.9290 / 0.9230

USD-CHF had a strong week as the dollar strengthened against most of the currencies. It was able to hold on to its support of 0.9200 before rising which negated the possibility of a dip towards 0.9070. Currently it stands at the support of 0.9290 on the daily charts and it needs to be held to see a further rise towards 0.9325 and 0.9390. On the down side if the support of 0.9290 is broken then a dip towards 0.9220-00 can be seen. Our bias would be for it to hold its support of 0.9290 and to rise further. Needless to say we need to see how the Euro and the Dollar-Index are trading which will have an impact on the Dollar-Swiss. If we do take trades we would like to take positions only in one of the pairs out of the Euro and the Dollar-Swiss.
 
 

GBP-USD @ 1.5140/43...Bearish
R: 1.5230-50 / 1.5420
S: 1.5130 / 1.5080 / 1.4860-50

Cable had a very bad week as it lost ground continuing its bearish trend. The fall has been sharp and the expectations are for the trend to continue. The momentum is likely to be good going into the next week. A further downside towards 1.4860-50 can be seen in the coming weeks. It lacks supports on the down side and the trend seems to be down in the longer term. Every bounce seen is a selling opportunity in the pair. It has resistance in the 1.5230 a rise to which if seen will be a selling opportunity. The drop in the Cable can also be an early indication of the coming trend of a stronger dollar in the medium/long term as well. Today morning we have seen the Cable weaken further as the Moody’s lowered the UK rating to Aa1 from Aaa.

Limit Sell Order
Sell GBP 20K at 1.5245, SL 1.5325, TP Open

 
 AUD-USD @ 1.0285/88...Likely to turn down
R: 1.0375-85 / 1.0430 / 1.0460-70
S: 1.0230 / 1.0160-50 / 1.0035

Aussie bounced from sub 1.0300 levels to all the way near its 200 EMA on the daily charts (1.0370) levels from where it turned lower. It dipped to its 1.0230 levels support which is its Fibonacci support on the daily charts. Our view remains bearish and we expect it to turn down from 1.0375-85 levels which is its resistance on the daily charts. We would be looking to sell the pair short on the rise to these resistances. On the down side it does have support near 1.0230 but we expect it to break on the next test. Further down side of 1.0035. If at all 1.0230 is held on the next test then a 1.0230-375 range also can develop for the pair.

Limit Sell Order
Sell AUD 10K at 1.0365, SL 1.0440, TP 1.0245

Happy Trading!