Key Highlights
Euro declined heavily this past week, especially on Friday against the US Dollar.
A major support at 1.0960 is holding the downside for now, but the EURUSD pair remains at risk of more declines.
Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance Total released by the Ministry of Finance earlier today, which posted a trade deficit of ¥-53.4B, compared with the forecast of ¥-318.9B.
EURUSD – Technical Analysis
The US Dollar outperformed every other currency this past Friday, and climbed higher. The EURUSD pair fell sharply, and once it breached the 1.1100 support area downside was swift. There was a bullish trend line on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which was broken during the down-move. After the break, the pair even cleared the 1.1000 support area to settle around 1.0960.
Earlier, the EURUSD pair made an attempt to move higher, but the upside was stalled around the 100 hourly simple moving average, which is now coinciding with the broken trend line. Furthermore, the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1207 high to 1.0964 low is also aligned around the 100 MA. In short, there is a monster resistance forming at 1.1110 where sellers might take control.
An initial resistance is around the 23.6% Fib level, followed by the 38.2% Fib level. The hourly RSI is around the extreme levels, suggesting a minor correction is possible in the near term.
Today, there might be ranging moves, as a few banks will be closed due to Whit Monday.
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