1. JANUARY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
5. ON THE WEB
1. 2020 ASTROLOGERS FUND FORECASTS
While markets can melt higher, we keep selling. It is not so much a question now of "How high is UP", but whether & for how long SPX 3150/DJIA 28K remains support. Will markets be higher in March? I don't know.
Will they be higher [July August 2020- almost DEFINITELY NOT!
Stock prices relative to earnings growth at record high
HW: What me worry?
DJIA 28K before 30K? We should know shortly.
If so, the new 64K QUESTION: HOW LOW IS LOW?
As long as markets remain above SP 3150, MOMO BULLS are not worried unless/until DJIA 28K becomes a firm ceiling!
Should market drop below SPX 3150 next support levels are circa 3125, 3065-3070, and 3025-3030.
Will markets be higher in March? I don't believe so. Will they be higher in [July to] August 2020- almost DEFINITELY NOT!
Stock valuations are generally unappealing [not cheap] for most stocks.
OUR CASH POSITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMUM!
We advise fresh IRA money should be left in cash & we recommend a little more selling of 2020 portfolios with each market rally.
CNY < 7
US 10 Year Bond ~ 1.80
IMHO “Improper” Valuations
DJIA > 28000
SP > 3069-3150
NASDAQ > 8500-8800
TIPS > 116
COPPER < 3.20
GOLD > 1425
VIX < 15
FIRST EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2945 KACHING: Both Covered 2840!
SECOND EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2888, Sell 2880 KACHING: 2812 & 2750 Buy Gold 1286, 1280 KACHING 1400, 1410
THIRD EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS)
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2964, & 3000; KACHING Closed 2940 & 2925 & 2925
Buy Copper 270, 266 & 260 KACHING Sold on stop 280
2019 POSITIONAL TRADING:
Copper 274, 266 & [292 Copper open from H1 2019] Still open
Buy SPX 2860, 2900; KACHING SOLD 3030 & 3058
Short SPX 3057 & 3088 & 3149 Still Open
2020 POSITIONAL TRADING
Short SPX 3230, 3240 &3275
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: The-federal-reserve-is-stuck-in-quantitative-easing-hell
KEY DATES: January 21, 23, 27, 29
DJIA: 29000 PIVOT
SPX: 3300 PIVOT 3350 or 3400 RESISTANCE?
NASDAQ: 9000 PIVOT
GOLD: 1550 PIVOT S1 1540 S2 1500 S3 1480 R1 1568 R2 1608 R3 1650
SILVER: SUPPORT 16.50-16.80 RESISTANCE 18.20-18.80
OIL: 58 PIVOT
COPPER: R1 2.88 R2 2.92 R3 3.00 R4 3.11 R5 3.20
US 10 year WATCH
BITCOIN: 9000 RESISTANCE?
2019 CLOSE: DJIA 28508 SPX 3231 & NASDAQ 8823
2018 CLOSE: DJIA 23327 SPX 2506 & NASDAQ 6635
2017 CLOSE: DJIA 24719 SPX 2673 & NASDA 6903
2016 CLOSE: DJIA 19762 SPX 2238 & NASDAQ 5383
AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1430
Reduce risk and Focus on Capital Preservation:
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. We are largely standing aside with an inclination to reduce market exposure except for special situations
AFUND SHORT WATCH:
Netflix (NFLX) $325+, Tesla (TSLA) $480+, Bitcoin (BTC)
AFUND BUY WATCH: After a (near) correction Prices TBD
Chewy (CHWY), Disney (DIS), Microsoft (MSFT),
With the exception of special situations, we would rather exit markets or at least continue to rotate stock sectors into value.
Favorite 2020 Sectors:
Entertainment, Mining, Selective Health Care (lower cost/better outcome) & TECHNOLOGY (Undervalued & Highly Scalable)
Stock selection is important. When possible, we prefer to recommend stocks sporting strong cash flows, sound balance sheets & growing dividends.
Active well managed portfolios should continue to outperform index funds in 2020.
3. Copper remains undervalued. It was a pawn of the US/China trade spat. Now it finally looks like the bottom is in and 3.00+ is coming: R1 2.88 R2 2.92 R3 3.00
We note gold is generally under favorable astrological influences in 2020.
Gold bugs are happy now that more generalist investors are beginning to join the party: However, we still see it as slightly expensive just now, albeit short term “justified” due to Astro, seasonal strength & Iran
We believe gold valuations will largely sport at or above Fair Value into the Year of the White Metal Rat (2020).
Just as it was undervalued for a long time, it CAN and is likely to be overvalued for a LONG time. While fundamentally gold is currently overvalued, in much of the Fall, the astro is positive for gold.
We advise precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection and only selectively add Q1 2020.
Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
NEW: Some investors have been hedging record equity prices by buying gold.
Gold FV $1430 = Commodity FV: 1388 + Currency FV: 1388 + Inflation Metal FV: 1388 + Crisis FV: 1556.
INVESTORS: We plan to stay LONG in 2020 (recommending a precious metal sector buy/hold rating and occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).
However as traders we may periodically short gold above $1530. For silver our current selling numbers remain $18.20 - $20.
We will be happy to reBUY Gold < 1450 & Silver < 16.80 in Q2 2020.
4. “The S&P 500 is running on fumes. We have pulled forward some of the gains from later this year, and could see some multiple compression”
Savita Subramanian, equity and quant strategist, Bank of America
HW: I cant become rich without risk? Darn, Double Darn!
“Make no mistake, this market move is NOT normal, and is NOT something which should be able to continue technically into and through February without a major hiccup.”
Mark Newton, market technician, Newton Advisors
HW: Is something rotten in Denmark?
“To date the market has had a long run of prosperity that makes investors nervous, because we all have good memories that what goes up must come down.”
Art Hogan, chief market strategist, National Securities
HW: Hmmm, you mean the laws of gravity have not YET been repealed?
There Is a Fund for Everything. But Why?
In the stock market, it’s become Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet vs everyone else
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