EUR/USD Forecast: US data in focus


The EUR/USD pair continues to trade uneventfully well into the 1.24 area, with a spike up to 1.2493 followed by another down to 1.2453 both early Europe, ending up with the pair back around its daily opening. With minor data in the European session, attention from the fundamental point of view is focused in the US, as the calendar with be uploaded ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday: Durable goods orders, employment, consumption and housing will keep investors entertained during the upcoming hours.

In the meantime, the technical picture shows momentum aiming higher above 100, RSI flat around 50, and price extending above a bearish 20 SMA. It’s also easy to appreciate a double floor established at 1.2360 with the neckline of the figure at 1.2600, the level to overcome to confirm an interim bottom and a steadier recovery in the pair midterm. But it will take really disappointing readings all through the US session to trigger such 150 pips recovery in the EUR/USD, something quite unlikely considering latest economic improvement. Shorter term however, the pair can advance up to 1.2520/50 daily basis, if market decides to dump the greenback. 

The main support stands at 1.2400 and it will take a downward acceleration through it to see the pair resuming the bearish tone, with the immediate target at 1.2360, mentioned year low.

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