EUR/USD Forecast: trying to gain some upward traction

The EUR/USD pair trades within a well-limited range  above the 1.1900 mark ever since the day started, and contained by 1.1940 in London trading hours. News at the beginning of the day that North Korea launched another missile test that flew over Japan and landed in the sea, triggered some demand for safe havens yen and gold, but the movements were reversed during the Asian session, with majors pretty much around Thursday Wall Street's closing levels.

A strong Pound´s rally, which surpassed the 1.3500 level against the greenback, helped the pair advance modestly, although the market will likely wait for US data, to be released later today, before taking its chances with the pair. The US will release among others, retail sales and industrial production for August. The just released EU trade balance for July showed that the surplus shrunk by more than expected, down to €18.6B from previous €22.3B, barely affecting the pair.

Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the price is struggling to surpass its 20 and 100 SMAs, both around 1.1930, whilst technical indicators remain within bearish territory, barely turning north. The pair seems poised to regain the upside, anyway, with scope now to extend its advance up to 1.1960 and as long as short-term pullbacks hold above 1.1920. Beyond, the rally can extend up to 1.2000 particularly on big disappointments coming from the US.

Below 1.1900 on the other hand, the risk turns towards the downside with intraday supports at 1.1860 and 1.1822, this last, the low set last week.

View live chart of the EUR/USD

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