EUR/USD Forecast: Seems vulnerable, focus on Lagarde's speech, Euro-zone PMIs

• The overnight uptick fizzled out just ahead of the 1.1100 handle.
• Positive trade headlines, rising US bond yields underpinned the USD.
• Friday's key focus will be on Lagarde's speech and Euro-zone PMIs.

The EUR/USD pair failed to capitalize on its early positive move to the 1.1100 neighbourhood or fresh two-week tops, and witnessed a dramatic intraday turnaround on Thursday, ending in the red for the second consecutive session. The initial uptick was on the back of a subdued US dollar demand and remained unaffected by the release of minutes of the ECB monetary policy meeting held on October 23-24, which acknowledged the precarious outlook on both the global and domestic economy.

Lagarde's speech and Euro-zone PMIs in focus

The positive momentum, however, fizzled out rather quickly amid a late pickup in the USD demand. Positive trade-related headlines led to a sharp pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, which eventually extended some support to the greenback. The push higher came after China was reported to have extended an invite to US trade negotiations for another round of face-to-face talks. This was followed by a report by the South China Morning Post, indicating that tariffs on Chinese goods slated to go into effect on December 15 will likely be delayed even if the negotiating parties can't reach an agreement.
 
The pair settled near the lower end of its daily trading range, albeit managed to find some support near mid-1.1000s. The pair held steady above the mentioned region through the Asian session on Friday as market participants now look forward to the new ECB President Christine Lagarde's first speech. This coupled with the preliminary Euro-zone PMI prints will play a key role in influencing the shared currency and produce some meaningful trading opportunities on the last day of the week.

Short-term technical outlook

From a technical perspective, repeated failures near 100-day SMA suggest that the recent corrective bounce from sub-1.10 levels might have already run out of the steam. A subsequent slide below 50-day SMA, around the 1.1045 region, and 50% Fibonacci level of the 1.0879-1.1180 move will reinforce the bearish outlook and set the stage for a slide further towards the key 1.10 psychological mark. The downward trajectory could further get extended towards the 1.0955-50 region before the pair eventually drops to the 1.0900 round-figure mark.
 
On the flip side, the 100-day SMA, currently near the 1.1085 region, which is closely followed by 23.6% Fibo., around the 1.1100-10 region might continue to act as strong resistance levels. Sustained break through the mentioned barrier might be seen as a key trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move. The pair then might aim towards testing the 1.1170-80 supply zone (double-top resistance) en-route the 1.1200 round figure mark.